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Bitcoin spot demand remains negative despite ETF inflows
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has highlighted a significant imbalance in the Bitcoin market. According to him, the recent price rally has been driven primarily by futures trading rather than genuine spot market demand.
Highlights
- Bitcoin spot demand remains negative despite rising prices and strong ETF inflows.
- The current rally is largely supported by futures trading activity.
- CryptoQuant CEO warns that without real spot buying, the uptrend may prove unsustainable.
Divergence between futures and spot markets
Ki noted that while open interest in Bitcoin futures continues to grow, visible on-chain spot demand remains in negative territory. Historically, bear markets end only when spot and futures demand recover simultaneously. Currently, however, the recovery appears to be fueled by leveraged futures traders rather than organic spot buyers.
Even with substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and large corporate purchases, on-chain data shows persistent weakness in actual spot buying. In early April, the 30-day visible spot demand stood at approximately -87,600 BTC.
Institutional buying not enough
Despite strong ETF inflows—$786 million and $823 million in consecutive weeks—and Strategy’s purchase of 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion, the underlying spot demand has not turned positive. This suggests that ETF and corporate buying is being offset by selling pressure from long-term holders and miners.
Ki Young Ju emphasized that sustainable rallies require simultaneous strength in both spot and futures markets. A futures-driven recovery without spot support often ends in a correction once leverage is unwound.
Market implications
The ongoing divergence increases the risk of a sharp reversal if macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions shift. While institutional interest remains high, analysts caution that true bullish momentum will only return when spot market demand turns consistently positive.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,800 after failing to break the $80,000 resistance level.
As previously covered, Bitcoin ETFs post strongest inflows since February.
This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.
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