Polymarket monthly volume falls as Kalshi gains share in U.S. prediction markets

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Polymarket volume falls, Kalshi gains

Highlights

Polymarket and its U.S.-based app post $10.2 billion in trading volume in April, down 8.9% from March's $11.2 billion, as Kalshi's volume rises 13% to $14.8 billion.
Sector-wide prediction market activity climbs 12.4% month-over-month to $29.8 billion in April, with market share shifting toward Kalshi and new entrants like Prophet and MoonPay.
Polymarket faces regulatory scrutiny during its U.S. expansion, as lawmakers urge CFTC crackdowns and Wisconsin's attorney general files lawsuits against multiple prediction market platforms in April.

April trading volumes and market share shifts

As reported by Dune Analytics, Polymarket and its U.S.-based trading application generate more than $10.2 billion in trading volume in April, down from more than $11.2 billion in March, a decline of about 8.9%. At the same time, rival Kalshi records a roughly 13% increase in April volume to about $14.8 billion.

The broader prediction market sector continues to grow despite Polymarket's slowdown. Total monthly trading volume across prediction markets rises to about $29.8 billion in April from about $26.5 billion in March, an increase of roughly 12.4%, indicating that trading activity is shifting toward competing platforms rather than contracting overall.

New entrants are also adding pressure. Prophet, an AI-native prediction market platform, launches its first live trading tranche last week with an AI model acting as counterparty using real capital, while MoonPay debuts an AI tool for prediction market trading strategies earlier this week.

U.S. expansion plans face regulatory pressure

Polymarket's decline comes as the company seeks to re-establish itself in the U.S. after exiting the market in 2022 under a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which bars the platform from allowing U.S. residents to use its main global exchange.

To regain ground, the company launches a dedicated app for U.S. customers in December 2025, although that platform remains separated from Polymarket's global exchange and liquidity. The expansion effort unfolds as lawmakers and regulators increase scrutiny of prediction markets, especially contracts tied to war, energy prices and other geopolitically sensitive topics.

In March, Senator Elizabeth Warren and more than 40 members of Congress write to the CFTC calling for a ban on government insiders using prediction market platforms for profit while in office or serving officially. In April, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul also files lawsuits against Kalshi, Polymarket and other operators, alleging they violate state sports betting laws.

Our earlier report on the House Financial Services Committee’s AI-focused legislative package outlined how lawmakers are advancing bills to curb AI-enabled financial fraud while encouraging innovation through regulatory sandboxes and pilot programs. It also highlighted measures aimed at strengthening law enforcement tools against scams, particularly those targeting seniors, alongside proposals touching broader economic policy such as keeping the Federal Reserve focused on inflation.

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