Bitcoin trades down as US military strikes near Strait of Hormuz

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Bitcoin slides 1.44% today to $75,833

Highlights

U.S. military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz on May 26 triggered immediate $300 million crypto liquidations and sparked sharp Bitcoin selling.
April saw over $2 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, intensifying downward pressure amid geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty.
Bitcoin remains under bearish pressure, trading below key moving averages with short-term support at $75,312 and a likely rangebound week between $75,680 and $76,880.

Selling intensifies as military strikes spark liquidations and ETF outflows

Fresh U.S. military strikes on Iranian vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on May 26 triggered immediate crypto market liquidations totaling $300 million, directly reducing liquidity and intensifying selling in Bitcoin. In response, Iran condemned the strikes and vowed retaliation, amplifying headline risk and adding to the uncertainty for risk assets. Additionally, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $2 billion in net outflows this May amid heightened geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty, which increased reserves on exchanges and contributed to sustained downside pressure.

Momentum remains bearish as technicals confirm oversold conditions

BTC is currently trading below the SMA-20 at $78,602.94, the SMA-50 at $77,090.81, and the SMA-200 at $80,301.74, with the Ichimoku Kijun level at $78,569.80 standing as immediate resistance. Technical momentum indicators remain mostly negative: MACD and ADX both show a sell bias and muted trend strength, while the RSI (42.89) and CCI (–80.36) highlight bearish momentum. The D1 Stoch RSI is signaling oversold conditions, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) points to ongoing attempts by buyers, though still within a broadly negative structure. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) corroborates this downside pressure. Prices have opened the session lower and continue to drift near the bottom of the day’s intraday range of $75,312.99 to $76,104.02, with several oscillators finding the market oversold but without confirmation of a reversal so far.

Further downside risk as weekly technical signals remain firmly negative

Over the coming week, BTC is expected to remain within a typical volatility band between $75,680 and $76,880, keeping price action close to current levels. With all weekly timeframe signals (RSI, ADX, MACD, SMA-50) in sell mode, the likelihood of a sustained price rebound is under 20%, tilting the balance toward further weakness. If Bitcoin decisively clears resistance at $78,569.80, a bullish scenario may attempt to develop; however, a drop below near-term support at $75,312 would likely accelerate downside momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees sustained macro and sentiment headwinds keeping downward pressure on Bitcoin near $75,833.34. The analyst points to a combination of geopolitical escalation and rising institutional outflows as key drivers behind weakened demand and persistent market stress. He still highlights technical oversold readings as a signal that a short-term bounce is possible. However, risk factors outweigh positive momentum for now. "Unless Bitcoin breaks above $78,569.80 with conviction, I expect further volatility and prefer to wait for clearer signs of risk appetite returning."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin was facing continued downside pressure amid institutional outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty, limiting its recovery potential. The latest data reinforce this perspective, with persistent negative momentum and ETF outflows suggesting that traders should closely monitor Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $75,312 support level as a critical gauge for further downside risk.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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