Avalanche price prediction: Holding $6.76–$7.46 range as AVAX tumbles 9.76%

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Avalanche drops 9.76% today to $7.11

Highlights

Avalanche C-Chain processed 393.7 million transactions year-to-date in 2026, a near sevenfold year-on-year increase signaling robust ecosystem engagement.
Despite surging usage, AVAX price has failed to reflect improved network fundamentals and remains weighed down by persistent market selling.
Technical signals indicate a strong bearish trend, with AVAX consolidating between $6.76 and $7.46 and further downside risk remaining elevated.

Transaction surge outpaces price recovery as network activity jumps

Avalanche C-Chain recorded 393.7 million transactions so far in 2026, representing a nearly sevenfold increase compared to the same period last year. This surge in processed transactions reflects a substantial expansion in network activity and highlights growing engagement with the Avalanche ecosystem. While such an increase in usage often connects to enhanced token utility and can underlie stronger demand fundamentals, price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Sustained bearish signals as AVAX breaches key technical levels

On the hourly chart, AVAX/USD is trading below both the MA-20 at $7.63 and MA-50 at $7.90, with the MA-200 on the daily chart situated much higher at $10.74. The Ichimoku Kijun level is marked at $7.51 and acts as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators further confirm weakness: MACD and ADX both signal bearish momentum, while RSI is at 30.19, indicating strong oversold conditions. Stoch RSI and CCI also register oversold readings. Intraday Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator both show seller dominance, supporting the overarching bearish structure.

Range-bound trading expected as downside risk dominates outlook

Over the next 2–3 trading days, AVAX/USD is expected to trade within a range of $6.76 to $7.46 according to the anticipated volatility band. The likelihood of an upward move remains very low, with downside continuation highly probable. The base-case scenario is price consolidation within this defined range as volatility persists. If AVAX can break above the $7.51 resistance, a rebound could develop; if selling intensifies and the price falls below $6.76, a sharper decline becomes likely.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the recent surge in Avalanche C-Chain transaction volume as a strong signal of underlying network growth. He notes that despite this fundamental progress, AVAX is still under significant technical pressure near session lows. Karapetjanc believes a rebound is possible, especially if user activity continues at current intensity and key resistance at $7.51 is breached. However, for now, price action and momentum remain bearish. "Fundamentals are improving, and I expect this uptick in ecosystem usage to support a constructive shift once markets regain confidence."

Previously it was reported that Avalanche faced persistent bearish momentum despite growing institutional engagement and expanding on-chain activity. The latest decline to new lows, coupled with a surge in network transactions, strengthens the bearish outlook and suggests that traders should monitor the $6.76 support as a critical threshold for potential further downside.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.