-2.82% for Bitcoin as large outflows hit US Bitcoin ETFs

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Bitcoin slides 2.82% to $61,477 today

Highlights

U.S. airstrikes on Iran after the downing of its helicopter have triggered acute risk-off sentiment and sharp outflows from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs.
The geopolitical escalation caused over $664 million in crypto liquidations and pushed Bitcoin below $62,000 as traders retreat from risk assets.
Bitcoin remains firmly in a downtrend, trading below key moving averages; technicals suggest high likelihood of further declines with a range of $55,288.80 to $63,996.67.

ETF outflows and liquidation surge as geopolitical risks escalate

After Iran reportedly shot down a U.S. military helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump has announced retaliatory U.S. strikes against Iran, triggering a sharp risk-off move in global markets and driving a steep drawdown in Bitcoin. Multiple outlets report that in conjunction with these escalations, risk aversion has surged and instigated large outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), amplifying the sell-off and pushing Bitcoin below $62,000. The geopolitical clash has resulted in traders liquidating more than $664 million in crypto positions as investors retreat from risk assets, with over 8 million BTC moving underwater and a growing bifurcation between "clean" and "sanctioned" pools of Bitcoin as sanctioned economies attempt to use crypto for settlement infrastructure.

Seller dominance persists as BTC tests multi-level resistance

BTC/USD is testing technical barriers, with price holding below the MA-20 ($62,490.48), MA-50 ($63,687.19), and the long-term MA-200 ($78,276.65, daily). Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $61,867.34 on the daily chart. Bearish momentum persists as the MACD, ADX, CCI, and Awesome Oscillator all indicate sell signals, while RSI at 41.45 remains biased to the downside but has not reached deeply oversold territory. Stoch RSI is neutral, and BBP gives an intraday Oversold alert, reinforcing broad seller dominance in the current setup.

Downside risks intensify amid confined trading range outlook

Over the next several sessions, the likely trading range is projected between $55,288.80 and $63,996.67, with further downside highly probable and little expectation of upward movement in the near term. The baseline scenario sees BTC staying confined within this band near recent lows. In a bullish case, a decisive breakout above the Kijun would open up recovery potential. Conversely, if support fails to hold, an acceleration towards the lower boundary of the forecasted range is likely.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees the current Bitcoin drawdown as a clear response to escalating geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment. He notes that large ETF outflows and a wave of liquidations reinforce short-term pressure, but expects such shocks to also create medium-term accumulation opportunities for strong hands. Karapetjanc believes the technical picture remains bearish for now, with downside risk persisting as macro headwinds dominate. "In my view, strong fundamentals and ongoing institutional interest will eventually stabilize BTC once volatility abates and market sentiment recovers."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent institutional outflows and weak technical momentum were weighing on Bitcoin’s price action. Today’s escalated geopolitical tensions and sharp risk-off flows not only reinforce this negative bias but introduce new systemic risks, making vigilance around forced liquidations and rapid shifts in market structure critical for active participants.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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