Cardano hovers at critical support as RSI and MACD signal continued pressure: weekly forecast

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Cardano down 26.66% over the week

Highlights

ADA remains under heavy selling pressure, trading well below major technical levels and sustaining a 26.66% weekly decline.
All momentum indicators signal strong bearishness, with selling trend dominance confirmed despite oversold technical conditions.
ADA is likely to trade between $0.150 and $0.167 over the next week, with a further downside bias and minimal rebound probability.

Governance setbacks and ecosystem upgrades shape weekly sentiment

Cardano's ecosystem faced significant operational and governance challenges, including the closure of the TapTools analytics platform and the cancellation of the 2026 Singapore Summit following a failed treasury vote. Questions have also emerged about the management of 1,090 Bitcoins attributed to Cardano's early foundation. Amid these setbacks, development continues with two major upgrades scheduled in June: the Van Rossem hard fork focused on smart contract performance and governance, and the public testnet launch for the Ouroboros Leios scaling protocol to improve network throughput. Notably, the network expanded its partnerships, including one with the Brazilian Olympic Committee, while large ADA holders increased their holdings during recent market stress.

Oversold technicals reinforce negative weekly momentum amid high volatility

On the weekly chart, ADA continues to trade well below its MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, underlining strong negative momentum and continued dominance by sellers. Resistance is established at the MA-20 ($0.248), and the asset currently hovers around crucial support after a sharp drop. Weekly RSI, Commodity Channel Index, and Stochastic RSI all indicate oversold conditions; however, MACD and ADX both signal persistent bearish strength, and Bull/Bear Power confirms sellers remain in control. Volatility this week has been exceptionally high at 35.57%.

Range-bound outlook next week as rebound probabilities remain weak

Over the next 7 days, ADA is expected to trade in a range between $0.150 and $0.167, based on current weekly volatility and negative momentum. With none of the four key weekly indicators suggesting a reversal, a sustained rebound is unlikely — there is less than a 20% probability of a significant recovery. The base case scenario anticipates sideways movement capped by resistance at $0.167, while persistent selling pressure could result in a retest or break below the $0.150 support. Brief upward moves toward $0.167 are possible, but a further decline remains the most probable scenario.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union analyst, sees Cardano's current challenges as a critical phase that could set the stage for new opportunities. Despite a 26.66% drop this week and sustained technical pressure, he believes the network’s active development and new partnerships — particularly with the Brazilian Olympic Committee — show ongoing institutional interest. The upcoming Van Rossem hard fork and Ouroboros Leios public testnet may help rebuild sentiment and set up medium-term catalysts. With large ADA holders increasing their positions during recent stress, Karapetjanc remains optimistic that foundational upgrades could restore buyer confidence. "While continued volatility and seller dominance may linger for another week, I see this phase as a valuable setup period that offers smart investors a long-term opportunity to position ahead of Cardano’s next growth cycle."

Earlier, analysts noted that although Cardano continued to advance development initiatives, persistent governance divisions and recurring platform shutdowns kept market sentiment subdued. With sellers now firmly in control and no technical indication of a near-term reversal, traders should monitor the $0.150 support for signs of further downside risk.

Source of Data: ADA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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