Ethereum price prediction: $1,655 support in play as ETH loses ground

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Ethereum slides 1.72% to $1,698 today

Highlights

Morgan Stanley's amended S-1 filing proposes a 0.14% sponsor fee for its potential U.S. Ethereum ETF, signaling intensifying institutional interest in regulated ETH exposure.
Ethereum network fees fell nearly 48% year-on-year in Q1 2026 to $39.9 million, coinciding with continued broad selling pressure and a leadership change in the Ethereum Foundation.
ETH/USD remains under firm bearish control below key technical levels, with short-term support at $1,655 and resistance at $1,712, and a high probability of further downside within a $1,655–$1,742 trading range.

Institutional interest rises as ETF filings and fee cuts compete with weak network metrics

Morgan Stanley filed a second amended S-1 with the SEC for its proposed Ethereum ETF on June 19, 2026, setting the sponsor fee at 0.14%, which would represent the lowest fee structure in the U.S. Ethereum ETF market if approved, according to Theblock. The filing signals heightened interest from mainstream financial institutions in launching regulated ETH investment vehicles, but does not yet constitute a definitive launch or capital inflow. Additional developments include the proposal of EIP-8304 to support trustless log and transaction indexing on Ethereum, as reported by Newsbtc, and a near 48% year-on-year decline in Q1 2026 network fees to $39.9 million, according to Coinpedia. Leadership changes have also occurred with Hsiao-Wei Wang stepping down from her role as co-executive director and board member of the Ethereum Foundation, as noted by Bankless, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum dominates as ETH trades beneath key technical levels

ETH/USD remains pressured below the MA-20 at $1,710 and MA-50 at $1,739 on the hourly chart. On the daily chart, price also trades well below the long-term MA-200 at $2,384, while the Ichimoku Kijun at $1,712 acts as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators confirm ongoing seller dominance: MACD generates a strong sell reading, ADX confirms a sell environment, and both RSI at 39.12 and CCI indicate selling conditions. However, Stoch RSI flashes a buy signal, suggesting a divergence between oscillators and trend indicators. BBP reads as oversold, reinforcing dominant seller momentum, and AO supports the downtrend structure.

Downside risk persists as upside remains capped within tight trading band

Near-term volatility is expected within a typical range of $1,655 to $1,742 over the next two to three sessions. The probability of an upward move remains very low, with strong downside risks prevailing for ETH in the immediate term. In the baseline scenario, price action is likely to remain sideways within this corridor. A bullish case requires a decisive break above the $1,712 resistance, while a bearish outcome could see ETH testing or breaching the $1,655 support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees institutional interest gaining traction with Morgan Stanley’s amended Ethereum ETF filing, but notes that regulatory approval is still pending. He observes that network efficiency is improving as fees decline, though downside pressures persist amid leadership changes and technical selling. Karapetjanc believes that while macro sentiment is constructive, immediate price action remains under bearish control. 'If ETH can reclaim resistance at $1,712 with strong regulatory or institutional catalysts, the outlook will quickly shift to the upside.'

Earlier, analysts noted that Ethereum faced persistent selling pressure amid heightened regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainty. The current environment reinforces this bearish outlook, with prevailing downside risks making sustained movement above $1,712 a key threshold for any potential reversal in price momentum.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.