Avalanche price prediction: Can $6.56 resistance hold as AVAX jumps 7.17%?

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Avalanche jumps 7.17% today to $6.25

Highlights

Avalanche's DeFi ecosystem saw a 45% drop in DEX trading volume and declining TVL, signaling reduced on-chain activity and liquidity.
Despite the pullback, top 100 AVAX addresses increased holdings 1.47% during the downturn, and institutional interest remains strong through FIFA-related ticket issuance and collectibles migration.
Technicals show AVAX/USD consolidating with bullish short-term momentum; range expected between $5.94 and $6.56 in coming sessions, with slight upside bias.

Liquidity contraction and whale accumulation amid ecosystem pullback

Avalanche's on-chain ecosystem has experienced a 45.26% drop in decentralized exchange trading volume over the past month, with total value locked in DeFi platforms now at $461.44 million, according to Blockchain Magazine. This contraction in trading activity and liquidity points to a broader pullback in participation, even as the circulating supply of USDT on Avalanche declined by 4.62%, potentially curbing transactional flexibility on the network during this period. Notably, Ambcrypto reports that the top 100 AVAX addresses boosted their holdings by 1.47% during a recent market dip, indicating selective accumulation by large holders. Meanwhile, institutional adoption continues, with Memeburn confirming over 100,000 World Cup 2026 ticket rights issued and $25 million in ticket trades on Avalanche, further supported by the migration of FIFA Collect digital collectibles, as reported by Cryptobriefing.

Mixed momentum as AVAX tests intraday technical boundaries

Technically, AVAX is trading above the MA-20 at $6.18 and MA-50 at $6.09, but remains below the MA-200 at $10.15. Immediate support is found at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $6.06. Momentum indicators are positive, with MACD, ADX, RSI at 57.7, CCI, and BBP all suggesting buyer dominance within the day. However, Stoch RSI and the Awesome Oscillator remain neutral, resulting in a mixed intraday technical landscape.

Rangebound outlook with bullish bias as volatility persists

For the next 2-3 sessions, AVAX is expected to trade within a volatility band between $5.94 and $6.56. There is a 53% probability of an upward move, making a gradual advance slightly more likely. The baseline scenario sees price consolidating within this range, with a bullish breakout possible if resistance near $6.56 is overcome, while a breakdown below $5.94 could open the way for short-term downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent drop in Avalanche’s DeFi activity and stablecoin supply as a warning sign for underlying network engagement. He remains cautious despite the uptick in holdings by large addresses and new institutional launches. Technicals are mixed, with price above short-term averages but still below long-term resistance. "Until AVAX can reclaim stronger on-chain momentum and overcome the $6.56 barrier, my view stays defensive," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche faced sustained bearish momentum and persistent seller pressure across multiple timeframes. The latest shift toward buyer dominance and selective large-holder accumulation marks a notable change in tone, making a sustained move above the $6.56 resistance level the key development to watch for upward continuation.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.