Ethereum price prediction: Can $1,492–$1,637 range shape ETH upside after 1.34% move?

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Ethereum rises 1.34% to $1,587.59 today

Highlights

Ethereum spot ETF outflows hit $82 million on June 28, driving significant market liquidity pressure.
Large holders added $880 million worth of ETH to supply over the past week, intensifying downside risk despite some institutional buying.
ETH/USD is expected to remain range-bound between $1,492 and $1,637 as technical signals are mixed but weakly favor bulls in the short term.

Institutional outflows and large holder sales intensify supply pressure

Heavy US spot Ethereum ETF outflows totaling $82 million on June 28, 2026, have driven significant underlying sales of ETH, directly influencing liquidity conditions in the market, according to Cointribune. Simultaneously, on-chain data compiled by Coindoo revealed that large Ethereum holders sold roughly 550,000 ETH over the past week, adding $880 million in new supply and amplifying overall market pressure. While Sharplink, a major institutional holder, acquired an additional 29,196 ETH for $46.7 million on June 27 as reported by Ambcrypto, this buy-side activity was not enough to offset the impact of broader outflows and large-scale holder sales. These developments were further accompanied by Tether's USDT temporarily surpassing Ethereum by market capitalization and a second consecutive quarter of double-digit negative performance for ETH, reflecting persistent market headwinds.

Intraday buying versus longer-term weakness as mixed indicators persist

On the technical front, ETH/USD is trading above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the hourly chart, while it remains well below the long-term 200-period moving average. Immediate support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $1,568. Among momentum indicators, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a strong sell, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) also favors selling conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52.06, indicating modest buy territory, with both the Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) showing neutral signals. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is overbought, confirming recent intraday buying dominance, although the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, highlighting a lack of clear supportive trend from this metric.

Range-bound trading expected as volatility moderates directional risk

Looking ahead, ETH/USD is expected to fluctuate within a $1,492 to $1,637 range over the next one to two trading days. There is a 59% probability of an upward move, compared to a 41% likelihood of a downside break. The baseline scenario calls for continued range-bound action amid typical volatility. If bullish momentum develops and resistance is breached, an upside scenario may play out, while a close below immediate support would shift the focus to a bearish outcome.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Ethereum withstanding notable negative flows and challenging market sentiment. He acknowledges that persistent ETF outflows and major holder selling have weighed heavily on fundamentals. However, he believes the consolidation above key moving averages and signs of institutional accumulation signal underlying resilience. Karapetjanc maintains a constructive outlook, anticipating that renewed demand could tip the balance if selling pressure fades. "I remain confident that improving sentiment and institutional interest can drive ETH higher once the current supply overhang is absorbed."

Earlier, analysts noted that Ethereum was weighed down by weak institutional demand, regulatory hurdles, and broad downside pressure, making a sustained recovery unlikely without clear positive catalysts. The latest developments underscore that persistent outflows and large-holder sales remain primary risks, so traders should closely monitor for a decisive break above current resistance as a signal of potential trend reversal.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.