NFL calls for tighter regulation of prediction markets

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NFL against prediction markets

CFTC softens its approach

The CFTC has recently changed its stance on prediction markets. The regulator withdrew a 2024 proposal that would have banned contracts tied to sporting and political events.

The commission is also defending its exclusive federal authority to regulate such instruments in court, despite objections from individual states. At the same time, the CFTC is developing clearer rules that effectively recognize prediction markets as legitimate derivatives.

This approach is supported by Michael Selig, who was appointed to the commission by U.S. President Donald Trump in 2025. A more innovation-friendly policy has helped fuel the rapid growth of prediction platforms.

What restrictions is the NFL proposing?

The league’s main concern involves markets that can be relatively easily manipulated by a single person. These include contracts that depend on subjective officiating decisions, the actions of individual players, or outcomes that insiders may know in advance.

“The Commission must refine the definition of contracts based on events that cannot be meaningfully distinguished from activity that is effectively gambling,” the NFL said in its letter.

The league also criticized the proposed 10-day pre-approval period for event contracts. In its view, that timeframe is too short for a thorough review. The current mechanism could also effectively shield contracts that have already been listed on a platform.

The NFL also raised concerns about markets tied to awards such as Offensive Player of the Year. The CFTC is seeking to allow such contracts because the winner is selected by a voting panel. However, the NFL believes these events still create risks to market integrity.

Combating insider trading

The NFL also called for an explicit ban on the use of material non-public information when trading event contracts.

The league proposed creating mandatory lists of individuals prohibited from betting on events connected to specific sports organizations. In the NFL’s view, platforms should not be left to decide on their own who may or may not trade.

The letter also reiterated several earlier proposals from the league. These include a ban on margin trading, restrictions on advertising, additional consumer and game-integrity protections, and a minimum participation age of 21.

Why prediction markets have become popular

Prediction markets have grown in popularity because of their simple model: users can put money on the outcome of real-world events, ranging from elections and sporting events to central bank decisions and product launches. Unlike traditional polls, these platforms reflect not only opinions but also the financial conviction of participants. As a result, contract prices are often viewed as a collective estimate of the probability of a particular outcome.

Polymarket has been one of the main drivers of this growth. The platform attracted users with its broad range of topics, user-friendly interface, and the ability to trade contracts around the clock using cryptocurrencies. Its popularity rose particularly sharply during major political events, when users began following Polymarket prices as an alternative to polls and expert forecasts.

Prediction markets may also face potential oversight from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

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