Solana price prediction: Is the rebound toward $100 a trap before another leg lower?
Solana quickly recovered part of its losses after a sharp decline, but the rebound alone is not enough to change the broader setup. The next move should show how durable the return of buyers really is.
98.59
103.85
A major Solana upgrade was announced on September 16. The new Transaction V1 format increases the maximum transaction size more than threefold, from 1,232 to 4,096 bytes. This allows the network to handle more complex operations, including multi-step transactions, enterprise multisig transactions and operations involving zero-knowledge proofs.
The external backdrop remains difficult, however. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, while noting that inflation remains elevated and uncertainty related to geopolitical developments continues.
$97.50 remains the key level for the bearish setup
The bearish scenario outlined in the previous analysis partially played out. SOL fell to $95.82, breaking support around $97.50, although the price did not reach the $93.50 target area.
SOL quickly reclaimed $97.50 and recovered toward $100. However, given the tense geopolitical backdrop and the Fed’s more hawkish stance, the downside scenario remains relevant. If selling pressure resumes, the $93.50–92 area remains the key target zone.
A break above the descending trendline around $103–103.50 would invalidate this setup. In that case, the recovery could accelerate toward $107.
Network progress has yet to remove macro pressure
Solana’s fundamental picture remains mixed. Expanded network capabilities support the long-term technology case, while fresh details surrounding an infrastructure outage highlight the operational risks that remain.
At the same time, restrictive Fed policy and continued instability in the Middle East could keep pressure on the broader crypto market, limiting the impact of Solana-specific positive developments.
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