Avalanche stalls near resistance at $11.8 amid bullish momentum: weekly outlook

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Avalanche gains 30.08% this week

Highlights

Avalanche gained 30.08% in the past 7 days to $10.4, staying above key moving averages and showing bullish short-term momentum.
Daily technicals show a strong uptrend with high volatility and overbought indicators, cautioning on exhaustion risk despite bullish momentum.
Avalanche is projected to trade between $8.49 and $12.3 next week, with a 77% probability of upside if resistance at $11.8 breaks.

Helicon upgrade and ETF inflows fuel institutional demand over the week

The surge in AVAX was propelled by the activation of Avalanche's Helicon mainnet upgrade on September 22, 2026, according to Yahoo Finance and Blockchain.News. This upgrade significantly reduced the staking unbonding period to just 2 days and improved capital flexibility, aiming to enhance network reliability and attract institutional use in the coming week. Additionally, CryptoBriefing and Finance.yahoo.com reported Bitwise's launch of the first Avalanche ETF (BAVA), which drew $18–$22 million in initial inflows, and Paxos integrated AVAX and native USDC into its institutional platform, further boosting demand.

Sustained uptrend holds as technical signals warn of overbought conditions

On the daily chart, Avalanche shows a strong uptrend with price supported by a sustained move higher and volatility at 43.9%. Bullish momentum dominates as the MACD is positive and trending higher, the ADX reads 36.82 indicating trend strength, while CCI has entered the overbought zone at 101.54. With the nearest support at $9.4 (Ichimoku Kijun) and resistance at $11.8 (last week’s high), the technical picture favors continuation but warns of potential exhaustion.

Directional bias remains bullish as resistance breakout risk builds for next week

In the week ahead, Avalanche is expected to trade in a range between $8.49 and $12.3. The probability of an increase stands at 77%, while the likelihood of a decrease is 23%. The base case sees the price finding direction within the defined range. A break above resistance at $11.8 could open further upside, while a decline below support at $9.4 would signal a loss of momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees last week’s AVAX rally as institutionally driven but stretched. The Helicon mainnet upgrade and the launch of the Bitwise Avalanche ETF brought renewed attention and initial inflows of $18–$22 million, reinforcing network demand. Daily chart signals remain bullish, with MACD trending higher, ADX reading 36.82 for trend strength, and CCI now overbought at 101.54. Despite momentum, the setup looks vulnerable near $10.4, with clear levels at $9.4 support and $11.8 resistance. Kharitonov remains cautious, expecting AVAX to occupy a volatile range between $8.49 and $12.3 for the week. "The technicals support upside, but with overbought risks and stretched sentiment, I see no reason to chase Avalanche higher unless it holds above $11.8."

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche faced sustained downside pressure despite network upgrades and indications of institutional interest. The current setup reinforces the shift in momentum with increased institutional inflows and technical signals of strength, but traders should monitor for signs of exhaustion given elevated volatility and an extended uptrend.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.