Avalanche support at $9.76 comes into focus amid ongoing technical weakness: weekly outlook

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Avalanche slides 7.99% this week

Highlights

Avalanche trades at $10.31, dropping $0.89 or 7.99% over the past week with elevated volatility at 20.18%.
The price structure remains bullish long term, but current downside pressure keeps Avalanche below key resistance at $10.89.
In the coming week, Avalanche is expected to stay between $9.26 and $11.35, with a 59% probability of an increase.

Tokenized treasury surge and ETF inflows drive AVAX sentiment this week

Real-world asset tokenization expanded sharply on the AVAX network, with tokenized U.S. Treasury assets reaching around $545 million — a fourfold increase year-over-year according to NewsBTC. Avalanche led all blockchains with $266 million in new inflows over the past 30 days, while institutional adoption progressed through continued spot ETF and related fund activity such as a $268,000 U.S.-listed ETF inflow on October 1, reported by CryptoTicker. Secondary support comes from technical and protocol improvements, including the recent Helicon upgrade and record onchain credit activity in Q3 2026 as per CryptoBriefing.

Technical reversal risk grows as MACD-buy and oversold RSI diverge

On the daily chart, the setup is defined by a sustained move lower with a firm trend, highlighted by elevated weekly volatility of 20.18%. The MACD signals a strong buy, while Stochastic RSI sits deeply in the oversold zone at 0, pointing to potential for a near-term reversal. However, these signals are in opposition, with downside pressure still evident as the price holds below resistance at $10.89. Key support is established at $9.76, reinforced by the Ichimoku Kijun at $9.59, which could help stabilize pullbacks.

Rangebound base case holds as breakout risks hinge on $9.76 and $10.89

In the week ahead, Avalanche is expected to trade between $9.26 and $11.35, with a 59% probability of an increase and a 41% probability of a decrease. The base case is for the price to stay rangebound between the $9.76 support and $10.89 resistance. A bullish move above $10.89 could open the way toward the upper end of the forecast range, while a decisive drop below $9.76 would shift focus to further downside risk near $9.26.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Avalanche (AVAX) entering this week under clear technical pressure after its 8% pullback, with little immediate relief in sight. He notes that price action remains anchored below $10.89 resistance on the daily chart, and that downside momentum dominates despite an oversold Stochastic RSI of 0 and bullish MACD signal. However, Kharitonov highlights that significant real-world asset tokenization and fresh institutional inflows — including record onchain credit activity and a $268,000 ETF allocation — show that investor interest in the AVAX network continues to grow. For the week ahead, he considers the range between $9.76 support and $10.89 resistance as pivotal; a break below $9.76 could trigger a move to $9.26, while recovery above $10.89 may briefly lift sentiment. The expert remains cautious, setting a base case for rangebound trading and focusing on risk management. "Until AVAX reclaims $10.89, I treat any upside as a potential relief rally, not a sustained reversal."

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche faced persistent short-term selling pressure despite robust growth in its tokenized asset sector and increasing institutional involvement. The current analysis further develops this outlook by highlighting intensified institutional flows and protocol upgrades, with the $9.76 support now emerging as a critical level to watch for signs of stabilization or breakdown in the near term.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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