Bitcoin price prediction: BTC stays boxed in 11-day range as whales quietly retreat

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BTC stays boxed in 11-day range

Highlights

-Bitcoin hit $120,000 on Tuesday but failed to extend rally into today

-Bitcoin drops 1.3% to $118,400 as whale wallets reactivate and price stalls

-RSI at midpoint and price trapped between 20 and 50 EMA show indecision

On Tuesday, Bitcoin surged 2.23% and closed right at the $120,000 psychological mark. This close validated $120,000 as a critical resistance level watched by large holders. However, the inability of bulls to engineer a third straight green day today, Wednesday, July 23, has cast doubts on the momentum that began earlier in the week.

Bitcoin price dynamic (June - July 2025). Source: Tradingview

So far in today’s European session, Bitcoin is trading down by 1.3% at around $118,400. The current decline threatens to erase the modest 1.15% gain built earlier in the week. At this level, the price is sitting on the 4-hour 20 exponential moving average. This short-term average now serves as the first line of defence to halt the midweek weakness and attempt a rebound.

Just below this area, the 50 exponential moving average on the 4-hour chart near $118,000 offers the next critical cushion. Failure of both averages could result in further deterioration and possibly flip the weekly candle into net loss. Traders are also closely monitoring for a breakout from the current 11-day consolidation range. A daily close outside this structure could shift the short-term bias.

Bitcoin 20 and 50 EMA near $118k offer last defence before range support collapses

Technically, the 4-hour RSI now lies flat near the midpoint, confirming the lack of directional conviction. This neutral RSI fits the broader context of a price structure that has tightened and lost thrust, despite prior bullish attempts.

Fundamentally, underlying pressure from large bitcoin transfers continues to weigh on sentiment. In recent sessions, long-dormant whale wallets have been reactivated. Notably, Elon Musk’s SpaceX transferred $153 million in bitcoin after three years of inactivity. Similarly, three wallets linked to a whale entity moved over 10,600 BTC, valued at approximately $1.26 billion. The scale and timing of these transactions suggest that institutional players are lightening their exposure following bitcoin’s climb above $122,000.

Whether this is just profit-taking or early signs of distribution remains to be seen. But for now, the price is boxed into an 11-day battle zone, and unless $120,000 is broken decisively to the upside, the undertone leans slightly defensive.

Bitcoin rebounded as Asian and European traders bought the dip ahead of the $120,000 mark. Bitcoin formed a golden cross while RSI climbed above neutral, indicating bullish momentum.

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