Ethena transfer to exchange and investor unlock: ENA remains under pressure

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Ethena slides 8.34% to $0.2168

Highlights

$410,000 in ENA long liquidations across major exchanges on October 12, 2026 increased forced selling and downside volatility.
An accelerated release of original investor ENA allocations and a $2.85 million transfer to Bybit grew circulating supply and available liquidity.
Short- and medium-term technical signals skew bearish, with ENA expected to trade between $0.2019 and $0.2287 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Long liquidations and token inflows heighten ENA’s downside volatility

A wave of $410,000 in long liquidations across major exchanges including Binance, Bybit, and OKX on October 12, 2026 intensified selling pressure on ENA, leading to forced position closures and amplified downside volatility, according to Tokenpost. The accelerated release of original investor ENA allocations earlier in October facilitated larger liquidity events, potentially increasing the available circulating supply and enabling additional market selling, as reported by Tokenpost. Additionally, a substantial transfer of 11.64 million ENA tokens—valued at $2.85 million—to Bybit from an Ethena Proxy address the same day pointed to further supply entering the market, although the specific intent behind the transaction remained unclear.

Sustained sell signals as resistance holds and buying remains sporadic

Technical analysis on the hourly timeframe shows ENA/USD trading below the MA-20 at $0.217 and MA-50 at $0.2264, while staying above the long-term MA-200 at $0.1189. The Ichimoku Kijun at $0.2231 is currently acting as immediate resistance. Among oscillators, both MACD and ADX indicate prevailing selling pressure, with an RSI reading of 41.8 inside the sell zone; Stoch RSI is currently overbought, and CCI prints a neutral signal. Bull/Bear Power enters buy territory, showing some intraday buyer activity, while the majority of momentum metrics continue to weigh on price direction. The current setup highlights a divergence between the broader downtrend and sporadic intraday buying.

Downside bias as price faces high volatility near resistance

In the short term, ENA/USD is likely to trade between $0.2019 and $0.2287 given recent volatility. There is a 70% probability of a move to the downside, while only a 30% chance is assigned to a sustained upward reversal. The base case is for price to remain within this corridor as high volatility persists. If ENA/USD breaks above $0.2231 resistance, further upside could gain traction; conversely, a consistent drop below $0.2019 would expose the asset to additional downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees current conditions for ENA as tenuous after the surge in liquidations and unusually large token transfers to exchanges. He believes persistent selling pressure, an increase in circulating supply, and weak technical momentum keep downside risk elevated. Technical signals remain bearish, and only a clear breakout above $0.2231 would shift his stance. "Base case is for further consolidation with a downside skew — I remain defensive unless ENA reclaims key resistance."

Previously it was reported that concentrated token unlocks and profit-taking activities had introduced persistent downside pressure for Ethena, challenging earlier bullish momentum. The latest developments reinforce this cautious outlook, with elevated liquidations and additional supply raising the likelihood of further price weakness; traders should monitor $0.2019 as a critical downside level.

Source of Data: ENA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.