Stellar weekly forecast: Sellers keep control as price stalls below 200-day average

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Stellar falls 4.03% this week

Highlights

Stellar trades at $0.1763, down 4.03% over 7 days, remaining near the bottom of its weekly range.
Price remains under all major daily moving averages, with momentum and volatility readings indicating a weak near-term structure.
Stellar is expected to trade between $0.168 and $0.2008 this week, with over 80% probability of further downside unless $0.1828 is reclaimed.

Network upgrade and DTCC plans lift sentiment despite deposit concerns

Stellar has announced a major network upgrade called the Bell upgrade, which will bring post-quantum security features ahead of a validator vote scheduled for November 23, 2026, according to U.Today. The update is designed to strengthen security for smart accounts and accelerate adoption of quantum-safe signatures and faster ledger operations, TradingView reported. Additionally, the DTCC, a leading US settlement provider, plans to include Stellar in its Tokenization Service by 2027, as noted by 24/7 Wall St. Issues with XLM deposits were also flagged by BitFlyer due to access restrictions on the official Stellar API in late October, according to U.Today.

Stretched momentum and volatility shape support and resistance outlook

The daily chart shows a developing trend, defined by a sharp move lower without a sustained trend, and elevated volatility of 9.03%. Daily momentum readings remain heavy, with MACD and ADX both positioned to the sell side, while RSI at 38.1926 is approaching oversold territory. Immediate support sits at $0.1717 and resistance appears at the 200-day average of $0.1828, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.2044 acting as a further cap.

Further downside favored this week unless key resistance is reclaimed

In the week ahead, Stellar is expected to trade between $0.168 and $0.2008. There is a very high probability of a decrease (over 80%) and a very low probability of an increase (below 20%). The base case sees price fluctuating within the defined range, as further downside remains favored unless the $0.1828 resistance is reclaimed. A sustained move above $0.1828 opens the door for a test of the upper boundary near $0.2008, while a break below $0.1717 would expose the lower end of the expected range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Stellar (XLM) remaining under notable pressure this week after losing over 4% and holding below the $0.18 level. Technical momentum is firmly bearish, with MACD and ADX on the sell side and daily RSI hovering at 38.1926, approaching oversold but not yet signaling a clear rebound. The major network upgrade, Bell, and planned DTCC tokenization inclusion highlight solid long-term fundamentals, but near-term sentiment stays negative as fresh institutional catalysts are still years away. Immediate support is marked at $0.1717, with resistance at $0.1828, and volatility is elevated at 9.03%. Kharitonov believes the base case remains sideways to lower, targeting a $0.168–$0.2008 range, unless $0.1828 is convincingly reclaimed. "As long as Stellar stays below the 200-day average at $0.1828, I remain cautious and view any bounce as a selling opportunity this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent downside pressure and weak technical signals left Stellar vulnerable to further declines amid limited demand. The current analysis reinforces this view by highlighting continued bearish momentum and increased volatility, with traders advised to monitor the $0.1828 resistance and $0.1717 support as key levels for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.

Source of Data: XLM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.