Bitcoin price prediction drops 1.36% after technical resistance holds below $116,570:

Traders Union
All News
Crypto News
Bitcoin Drops 1.36% Today to $111K

Highlights

Bitcoin trades at $111,315.40, down 1.36% for the session and below both the MA-20 ($115,587.18) and MA-50 ($116,561.06), indicating short-term selling pressure.
Market capitalization rose above $2.2 trillion as of August 29, 2025, with circulating supply nearing 19.9 million and institutional adoption supporting value despite recent volatility.
Despite mixed momentum signals and a bearish MACD, technicals indicate an 80%+ probability of Bitcoin stabilizing between $108,751.04 and $111,115.60 over the next five days.

Institutional positioning bolsters sentiment amid macro-driven volatility

Bitcoin’s market capitalization climbed above $2.2 trillion as of August 29, 2025, while the circulating supply approaches 19.9 million coins, reinforcing its scarcity and value proposition. Institutional adoption has continued to grow, with corporate treasuries now holding a notable share of total supply and new custody solutions becoming more established. Price action in August reflected short-term volatility driven by macroeconomic uncertainty at the Jackson Hole Symposium, but confidence remains underpinned by rising institutional involvement.

Short-term bearish momentum as dynamic resistance impedes recovery

The short- and medium-term moving averages above the price signal ongoing selling pressure, while the long-term trend retains a bullish bias as the price remains above the MA-200. According to the Ichimoku indicator, the nearest dynamic resistance is in the $116,570 range (Kijun/MA-50), while dynamic support is expected near the MA-200. Momentum signals are mixed. On the daily timeframe, MACD confirms a bearish outlook with a negative value, pointing to weakening momentum. The ADX at 19.86 is neutral, indicating a lack of clear directional strength in the current move. Among oscillators, RSI at 39.19 and CCI at –73.67 both indicate growing downside pressure but have not yet reached marked oversold conditions, while Stochastic RSI is neutral and does not signal an imminent reversal. The Awesome Oscillator shows a strong sell orientation, consistent with the prevailing downtrend in the short term.

High rebound odds as weekly signals turn increasingly bullish

For the next five trading days, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $108,751.04 and $111,115.60. The probability of a rise is very high (more than 80%), given that all major weekly indicators (RSI, ADX, MACD, and MA-50) show a buy or strong buy bias, making a downside move less likely. Baseline scenario: price stabilizes within a narrow corridor, reflecting near-term indecision. In a bullish scenario, recovery above resistance at $116,570 would invalidate recent downside momentum and suggest a move toward higher levels. Alternatively, a bearish scenario would see price break below $108,751, exposing the area closer to the MA-200 as potential support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin trading under key moving averages with bearish short-term momentum but notes that the underlying trend remains supported as long as price holds above $101,150.42. The base case is for rangebound stabilization between $108,751.04 and $111,115.60, with a high probability (over 80%) of a rebound, but confirmation above $116,570 is needed before shifting to a bullish stance. 'With technical signals mixed and no clear oversold extremes, I remain cautious — unless Bitcoin reclaims $116,570, capital protection stays my priority.'

Previously, it was noted that Ethereum’s subtle retreat as investors awaited clearer macroeconomic signals was contrasted by Bitcoin’s stabilization. Market sentiment was described as balanced, with regulatory efforts intensifying and increased speculative interest noted among memecoins.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.