Bitcoin price prediction: BTC holds momentum despite CPI above Fed target

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Sholanke Dele

12.09.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC holds momentum despite CPI above Fed target — Bitcoin holds momentum despite inflation pressure

Bitcoin extended its September advance on Thursday, despite inflation data showing consumer prices running at double the Federal Reserve’s target. The cryptocurrency gained 1.4% on the day, highlighting the strength of current momentum even in the face of macroeconomic headwinds.

- Bitcoin climbs to $116,500 as golden cross strengthens near-term bullish outlook.

- Bitcoin sharks add 65,000 BTC, showing conviction despite muted retail sentiment.

- Bitcoin open interest growth signals fresh positioning as September gains continue.

As the week progressed, Bitcoin pushed to a peak high of $116,500 during Friday’s Asian session, building on the prior day’s surge. By the European session, price eased slightly, trading near $115,400 with a mild loss of 0.2%. Still, week-to-date gains stand at 3.8% and the month-to-date increase has grown to 6.6%. These advances come after Bitcoin successfully broke through all key daily exponential moving averages, including the 20, 50, and 100-day levels, a development that strengthens the technical foundation for further upside.

Bitcoin price dynamic (Aug - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

Despite these gains, broader sentiment remains muted. The global Fear and Greed Index continues to register at neutral, reflecting a disconnect between market psychology and the actual price trajectory. This divergence is further evident in derivatives data. Open interest has been steadily rising, reaching an aggregate $42 billion across major exchanges. The sustained growth in open interest confirms that new positions are being built, supporting the bullish trend. However, the long-to-short ratio has slipped below 2.0 since Thursday, showing that short positioning is increasing relative to longs, which could temper near-term momentum.

BTC upside builds on shark accumulation

However, activity among larger holders points to conviction. Bitcoin “sharks,” defined as wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, absorbed 65,000 BTC over the past week, lifting their total holdings to a record 3.65 million BTC. This wave of accumulation signals strong structural demand that contrasts with retail’s more neutral stance. It suggests that while speculative sentiment is mixed, strategic investors are continuing to build positions, which has likely been the driver behind September’s strength.

Technically, the outlook remains constructive. The four-hour chart has registered a bullish crossover, as the 50-day exponential moving average crossed above the 100-day exponential moving average. This golden cross pattern reinforces the bullish bias and sets a near-term target at $117,500, a three-week-high. Should the market experience an unexpected pullback, the former resistance at $113,000 now acts as a support level.

Overall, the alignment of technical breakouts, rising institutional scale accumulation, and increasing open interest suggests that Bitcoin retains room to climb higher, even as traders monitor inflation’s impact on the broader macro environment.

Bitcoin recovery extends above the 20-day EMA after rejection flipped into support. But BTC open interest rises and spot volume declines highlight a fragile rally.

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