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Skanda Amarnath observes that the decline or stagnation in the Canadian oil sector began after Trudeau won in late 2015, at a time when oil prices had already been in freefall for over a year. Much of the Canadian oil investment and production was based on the expectation of sustained high oil prices.
Amarnath also notes that a different oil price environment emerged as the U.S. gained market share due to advances in fracking.
Amarnath has previously highlighted how some companies relied on financial engineering and shareholder buybacks when profits fell short. He has also noted shifting expectations for central bank policy, seeing a Federal Reserve rate increase as unlikely in July but possible as early as September in earlier commentary. These comments add context to his views on market conditions during the oil sector's stagnation.