Bitcoin price prediction: BTC 110,000 support vulnerable to renewed trade dispute

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Bitcoin price prediction

Highlights

Bitcoin drops 1% to $112,000 after rejection from 100-day EMA resistance zone.

Tariff tensions between China and U.S. spark renewed bearish sentiment across crypto markets.

Bitcoin faces layered resistance near $113,500 as open interest shows limited participation.

This week’s decline began after renewed tit-for-tat tariff threats between China and the United States unsettled investors and triggered a shift out of risk assets. The trade dispute has weighed heavily on Bitcoin’s outlook as global traders scale back exposure to volatile positions. The loss of confidence is visible in sentiment data—Binance’s Fear and Greed Index fell from a neutral reading of 42 yesterday to fear at 39 today, reflecting a clear drop in optimism as tensions between both nations intensified.

Bitcoin price dynamic (Oct 2025). Source: Tradingview

Bitcoin’s current price structure shows how the broader macro pressure has translated into technical weakness. After the largest single-day liquidation event last week, which erased billions in leveraged positions and sent the price below $108,000, Bitcoin rebounded briefly toward $116,000 before stalling at the 50-day EMA. Since then, price has trended lower on intraday charts, staying confined between $116,000 and $110,000. The inability to clear successive EMAs has now established a layered resistance zone—first the 50-day EMA at $116,000, and now the 100-day EMA near $113,500—which continues to suppress recovery attempts.

Bitcoin long-to-short ratio rises to 2.0, but upside volume remains thin

Technical readings support the ongoing weakness. Both the daily and 4-hour RSI have stayed in bearish territory, confirming that selling momentum remains dominant. Despite the consolidation within the $116,000 to $110,000 range, Bitcoin’s structure has failed to generate any breakout signals, suggesting that traders are still defensive. Open interest has stayed mostly flat over the past two days, showing limited new participation, while the aggregated long-to-short ratio has gradually risen to 2.0. This shows that while some traders are speculating on a reversal, the market lacks the volume to support it.

The combination of persistent trade tension and weak technical posture points to extended downside risk. Bitcoin trading below all major EMAs, coupled with soft sentiment and fading recovery attempts, leaves the $110,000 support exposed to potential breakdown if macro pressures intensify through the week.

Recently, we discussed how Bitcoin’s rebound stalled above $115,000 as hourly volume showed fading buyer participation. Price stayed capped near $116,000 as Washington’s remarks calmed market sentiment.

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