XRP gains 5.03% after surge in large transactions and ETF speculation

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Xrp jumps 5.03% today on ETF focus

Highlights

XRP gained 5.03% to $2.4666 but remains below its MA-20 ($2.6525), MA-50 ($2.8132), and MA-200 ($2.5895), indicating prevailing bearish pressure.
SEC ETF decision remains in focus, while recent whale activity included a $242 million transfer to Coinbase, a $63 million Binance sale, and record-high wallets holding over 10,000 XRP.
Bearish technicals dominate with daily MACD negative, RSI at 27, and sub-20% probability of sustained upside, keeping next week's expected range between $2.1849 and $2.2971.

Sentiment adjusts as recent flows influence short-term positioning

The upcoming decisions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regarding potential ETF approvals for XRP remain the key focus, as traders await possible confirmation that could impact the asset’s regulatory environment. Recently, notable on-chain whale activity was observed with large transfers, including a $242 million move to Coinbase and a $63 million sale to Binance. These events took place alongside an all-time high in wallet addresses holding more than 10,000 XRP, reflecting ongoing institutional engagement.

Bearish trend dominates as oversold indicators clash with intraday strength

XRP faces headwinds as it sits below its MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, highlighting sustained bearish pressure over the short, medium, and long term. Dynamic resistance is seen at the Kijun ($2.1771), while the MA-50 at $2.8132 serves as the next upside barrier if momentum improves. Technical indicators remain mixed: ADX points to a strong trend, but the daily MACD signals bearish momentum. The daily RSI is deep in oversold territory at 27, and both Stochastic RSI and CCI continue to reflect oversold conditions, although lower timeframes display some overbought signals. BBP is negative, indicating sellers hold a slight advantage, even as today’s strong move brings price near the session high. Divergence between intraday strength and underlying momentum signals a tug of war between short-term buyers and persistent sellers.

Limited upside prospects amid persistent bearish signals and tight range

For the next week, XRP is projected to fluctuate between $2.1849 and $2.2971. The chance of sustained price increases is low, below 20%, mainly due to conflicting momentum and persistent bearish signals from moving averages. The base scenario calls for sideways trading within this defined corridor. A break above $2.5895— especially with consolidation above $2.8132— would be needed to shift to a bullish outlook, while a close below $2.1849 would open the way for deeper downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that XRP remains under significant technical pressure as it continues to trade below its key moving averages, with bearish momentum confirmed by MACD and multiple oversold conditions across indicators. He highlights that while institutional activity and the prospect of regulatory developments fuel interest, deeply negative technical signals and the inability to reclaim resistance suggest that the upside is unlikely in the short term. Kharitonov sees limited potential for sustainable gains unless $2.5895 is firmly breached, and prefers a defensive stance given mixed sentiment and strong selling pressure. "Base case remains sideways within $2.1849–$2.2971 — without a decisive move above $2.5895, I’m staying cautious on XRP."

Previously, it was noted that macro tailwinds and whale accumulation played a key role in fueling XRP’s recent gains. Last time we reported that capital raise to establish an XRP-focused digital asset treasury was initiated by Ripple Labs to support price stability.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.