Stellar price prediction: XLM rises 7.55% — is further upside coming?

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Stellar surges 7.55% today on gains

Highlights

Stellar (XLM) traded at $0.2807 with a 7.55% intraday gain but remained below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, indicating sustained seller control.
Stellar processed over 100 million smart contract transactions by August 2025, integrated $5.4 billion in real-world assets, and expanded cross-border payment partnerships in developing economies.
Technical indicators—including RSI at 28.65 and risk range of $0.0810 to $0.2780—signal persistent bearish pressure, with less than 20% probability of near-term price increases.

Surge in network activity as retail speculation cools

Stellar recorded a record surge in smart contract usage, processing over 100 million transactions by August 2025 as part of its ongoing platform growth. The network has also expanded the integration of real-world assets, which now reach a total value of $5.4 billion in its ecosystem. Additionally, Stellar continues broadening its cross-border payments offerings through new partnerships with fintech firms and government entities in developing economies, while a recent decline in retail futures open interest hints at moderated speculative activity.

Oversold technical signals as bearish momentum persists

The nearest dynamic resistance is the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.2731, which now serves as the closest support, with the moving averages above acting as additional resistance levels. Momentum remains weak on the daily chart, with both the MACD and ADX signaling persistent bearish pressure. Indicators such as RSI (28.65), CCI (–264.64), and Stoch RSI (0.0) all show oversold conditions, suggesting stretched downside but not yet a reversal. BBP reveals sellers still dominate intraday momentum, while the Awesome Oscillator aligns with this bearish trend. Volatility has been high, and there is evidence of strength pushing toward the session highs, though medium-term momentum remains conflicted as several oscillators suggest a possible short-term technical bounce in oversold territory.

Low upside odds as downside risk drives near-term outlook

For the next 5 trading days, the projected range is $0.0810 to $0.2780. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely. The baseline scenario sees XLM consolidating sideways within support at $0.2731 and resistance near $0.3100. A bullish scenario would require a break above $0.3100 to open the way for higher retracement toward the 50- or 200-day moving averages. A bearish break below $0.2731 risks a deeper slide, targeting historical support much lower in the projected weekly range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees continued macro and adoption tailwinds for Stellar (XLM) despite persistent short-term technical weakness, as fundamental growth and integration of real-world assets power long-term credibility. Karapetjanc notes that while the price remains suppressed beneath key moving averages and momentum is weak, the record surge in smart contract activity and cross-border partnership expansion underlines robust platform development. The analyst believes sellers are still in control for now, but the underlying institutional and ecosystem advances suggest that sentiment could shift quickly if technicals turn. "While XLM faces near-term resistance and the odds for further decline remain elevated, I remain constructive given the solid fundamental progress — any sustained reversal above $0.3100 would offer bulls a strong tactical entry point, backed by real platform growth."

Previously it was noted that momentum remained bearish as confirmed by oscillators, further highlighting sellers remain in control of intraday momentum. The prior coverage also reported accelerating institutional adoption as Stellar added real-world asset features.

Source of Data: XLM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.