Bitcoin price forecast: BTC steadies near $106,000 as markets weigh Iran tensions and U.S.

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Bitcoin geopolitical price analysis

Highlights

- Bitcoin recovered from brief dips triggered by renewed Israel–Iran tensions.

- Positive ETF inflows and resilient liquidity suggest investors continue to accumulate rather than exit.

- Markets are watching for US–China policy headlines and Middle East updates that could sway short-term sentiment.

Bitcoin steadies as global tensions and policy signals shape sentiment

Bitcoin continues to show remarkable composure despite an increasingly complex geopolitical backdrop. Over the past week, escalation between Israel and Iran sparked risk aversion across global markets, briefly pulling BTC below the $106,000 threshold before buyers stepped back in. Flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain robust, totaling about $1.1 billion over recent sessions, underscoring investor confidence that the asset’s longer-term narrative remains intact even in periods of heightened tension.

Meanwhile, shifting trade rhetoric between Washington and Beijing is keeping markets alert. Investors remain wary of potential new US tariffs or restrictions that could rattle risk assets, although no formal announcements have yet emerged. At the same time, concerns over the long-term stability of the US dollar amid global reserve diversification continue to underpin Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against fiat risk. Analysts also note that Bitcoin’s realized volatility has now slipped below that of major US equity indices, a rare sign of maturity in what was once seen as a purely speculative market.

Experts weigh in on Bitcoin’s macro resilience

Anton Kharitonov, senior analyst at Traders Union, says that Bitcoin’s relative calm amid geopolitical unrest highlights its shifting macro identity. “We’re seeing Bitcoin trade less like a high-beta tech proxy and more like a strategic risk diversifier,” he explains. “ETF inflows confirm that institutions are not treating short-term geopolitical noise as a structural threat to digital assets.”

Viktoras Karapetyants, head of research, adds that liquidity metrics and derivatives data show steady leveraged positioning. “There’s a notable reduction in panic-driven liquidations,” he observes. “That signals growing maturity among larger holders, who are now using macro stress to accumulate rather than to hedge.” He notes that while day-to-day volatility could return around headline risks, the medium-term structure remains constructive.

Parshwa Turakhiya, market strategist, takes a more tactical stance. He believes Bitcoin could briefly test support zones if this week’s geopolitical developments turn sharply negative. “Short bursts of risk aversion can easily knock prices lower, especially around policy surprises or military flare-ups,” he says. “But as long as the ETF inflow story holds, buyers are likely to reappear near key moving averages.”

Technical outlook shows sustained recovery momentum

Technically, Bitcoin has traded between $101,490 and $106,437 in the past 24 hours, holding firmly above short-term support around $104,000. The 20-day EMA sits near $104,126, the 50-day EMA around $103,170, and the 200-day EMA near $104,381 — all converging to form a solid base. The RSI at 72.95 signals overbought conditions but remains consistent with a strong rebound trend. A daily close above $106,500 could open the door to a move toward $108,000, while initial downside support remains at $103,000 and $101,500. Consolidation above current levels would reinforce the neutral-to-bullish bias.

Background and previous coverage

Earlier this week, Bitcoin found steady footing after geopolitical volatility briefly unsettled risk assets. Read our previous coverage on Bitcoin’s pattern for a broader perspective.

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