Stellar: negative momentum and weak support led to price prediction of further downside

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Stellar slides 8.38% today

Highlights

Spiko Finance integrated XLM, enabling fund share minting and trading on Stellar and adding $33 million, or 5.3%, to its $622 million total value locked.
Stellar's real-world asset ecosystem processed $5.4 billion in RWA volumes last quarter, with total value locked reaching $639 million forecasted for Q3 2025.
Tokenized assets on Stellar are primarily treasuries, with $10 million in interest paid since launch and new European tokenized money market funds driving adoption.

Tokenized asset flows expand after Spiko integration boosts XLM TVL

Spiko Finance has integrated XLM, allowing the minting and trading of fund shares on the Stellar network and adding $33 million in total value locked, which is 5.3% of Spiko's $622 million TVL. This development further expands Stellar's real-world asset ecosystem, seeing $5.4 billion in RWA volumes processed last quarter and reaching $639 million in TVL for Q3 2025. Most tokenized assets on the network are treasuries, and interest paid to users has approached $10 million since launch, with new European tokenized money market funds enhancing adoption alongside ongoing projects.

Sustained downside confirmed as bearish momentum dominates daily signals

Momentum signals are negative, as both MACD and ADX on the daily chart point to sustained downside with strong trend intensity. Oversold readings from daily RSI (31.7), Stochastic RSI, and CCI suggest potential for a short-term technical bounce, but BBP remains negative, indicating continued intraday seller dominance. The daily performance shows a sharp slide of 8.38% with no significant gap between the prior close ($0.2506) and today's open ($0.237), placing the current price near today's low and signaling high intraday volatility with persistent pressure after the open. Both the Awesome Oscillator and the momentum indicators reinforce the prevailing bearish tone, with no material divergence among the signals.

Limited rebound prospects as bearish weekly indicators confine trading range

For the next five trading days, the expected range for XLM is adjusted to $0.2136–$0.2473, keeping within realistic bounds for recent volatility and encompassing the current price. Given all four weekly momentum and trend indicators (RSI, ADX, MACD, MA-50) remain bearish or neutral, the probability of a sustained price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further downside much more likely. The baseline scenario suggests consolidation in a sideways corridor above $0.2136. In a bullish scenario, a move above resistance at $0.2473 could trigger a short squeeze, while a bearish scenario would be confirmed if price breaks below $0.2136, potentially accelerating declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees XLM under persistent technical pressure with little sign of reversal. He notes momentum remains negative despite recent ecosystem growth, and the probability of sustained recovery is below 20%. Resistance at $0.2473 must break to spark any bullish move. "Current conditions remain unfavorable for buyers — base case is sideways or further downside as long as price holds below $0.2473."

Previously it was noted that sellers remain in control of intraday momentum, as confirmed by multiple bearish oscillators. The article discussed accelerating institutional adoption as Stellar expanded its real-world asset features.

Source of Data: XLM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.