USD/UZS consolidation near UZS11,743 support: Technical outlook

Traders Union
All News
Currency
US Dollar vs Uzbekistani Som drops 0.5%

Highlights

The United States Treasury plans to widen secondary sanctions on entities dealing with Iran, increasing compliance risks for global financial transactions involving the US dollar.
Affected countries may face policy-driven uncertainty and possible disruptions to dollar access as they weigh business partnerships against continued use of the US currency.
USD/UZS remains under bearish pressure with momentum indicators showing seller dominance and an expected range of UZS11,743 to UZS11,861 over the next few days.

Broader US sanctions drive dollar liquidity risks and policy uncertainty

The United States Treasury is set to broaden the scope of secondary sanctions on entities and countries maintaining business ties with Iran, a regulatory move that could restrict certain parties' access to the US dollar-based financial system, according to FXStreet. This development introduces new compliance risks for cross-border transactions and has the potential to tighten global dollar liquidity—a factor that can indirectly affect flows between the US Dollar and the Uzbekistani Som. Investing.com reported that these expanded economic pressures may force affected countries to choose between their business partnerships and continued use of the dollar, adding a layer of policy-driven uncertainty to the regional currency landscape.

Bearish technical momentum as USD/UZS tests key support levels

On the technical front, USD/UZS trades below its MA-20 at 11,840 and MA-50 at 11,842 on the H1 timeframe, with the daily MA-200 higher at 12,084. Immediate resistance is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of 11,844, while support emerges at 11,743. The MACD signals Sell and the ADX is Neutral, with the RSI at 35.84, also indicating a Sell, and both Stochastic RSI and CCI remain oversold. Bull/Bear Power confirms seller activity, and the Awesome Oscillator aligns with the downside bias across these readings.

Downside break favored as upward reversal odds remain low

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/UZS is expected to fluctuate between UZS11,743 and UZS11,861—a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The likelihood of an upward breakout appears very low, while a further decline is considered highly probable. The baseline scenario anticipates price consolidation within this corridor. A sustained move above resistance at 11,844 would be needed to turn sentiment bullish, while a close below 11,743 could accelerate the decline.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the USD/UZS pressured by both technical weaknesses and increased regulatory headwinds from the US Treasury’s sanctions policy. He believes policy-driven risks around US dollar liquidity are adding uncertainty to the currency pair, reinforcing ongoing seller dominance. The technical landscape points to more downside unless buyers reclaim 11,844, with sentiment capped by oversold readings and weak momentum. "Unless we see a decisive break above resistance, I expect USD/UZS to remain under pressure as fundamentals and market mood do not favor a reversal yet."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS was entrenched in a bearish trend, with persistent selling pressure dominating the outlook. The latest developments related to expanded US sanctions reinforce the downside bias, and traders should remain alert to potential price acceleration if support at 11,743 fails in the coming days.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.