Why is AUD/JPY down 0.5% today?

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Australian dollar slides 0.54% today

Highlights

AUD/JPY trades below its key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, showing persistent selling pressure.
Momentum indicators, including MACD and ADX, forecast additional downside while Stochastic RSI and BBP indicate temporary overextension to the downside.
Expected price range over the next five days is ¥110.36 to ¥112.39, with a 62% probability of a move lower.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the AUD/JPY pair pressured by persistent weakness below key moving averages. He notes that momentum remains to the downside, with multiple technical indicators flashing sell signals as no fresh news shifts sentiment or reverses the trend. The inability to reclaim resistance at ¥111.42, combined with overbought Stochastic RSI, increases the risk of further declines. Kharitonov cautions that buyer attempts look fragile in the current environment. "Without a clear driver or reversal in technical structure, risk remains high for further losses in AUD/JPY," he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, interprets the recent pullback in AUD/JPY as part of a healthy technical correction rather than a structural shift. He highlights that the bullish long-term trend stays intact and underscores the opportunity for renewed upside if the pair rebounds above ¥111.42. Karapetjanc is confident that the market offers setups for bulls willing to exploit current volatility. "The constructive backdrop means further growth is plausible — breakout traders should watch for momentum above resistance," he says.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that short-term sentiment in AUD/JPY is cautious due to weak momentum and indecision among traders. The flat open and mild correction signal hesitation, with the price holding near the intraday low. He points out that the Stochastic RSI and BBP suggest a possible snapback if sellers become overextended. "I see a tactical setup — nimble traders could look for quick reversals if AUD/JPY overshoots support levels in the coming days," he says.

Bearish momentum confirmed as multiple indicators signal caution

AUD/JPY is trading below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages (¥111.72, ¥112.39, and ¥112.32), with the Ichimoku Kijun at ¥112.32 providing resistance. The pair is near its immediate ceiling at ¥111.42 and support at ¥110.58, maintaining a near-term bearish posture despite a bullish long-term trend context. Momentum indicators are weak: the MACD and ADX both generate sell signals, the RSI stands at 49.9 forecasting a sell, and the Stochastic RSI is overbought at 95.58. The CCI remains neutral and BBP at 0.62 shows slight intraday buyer dominance but also overbought conditions. AUD/JPY opened nearly flat and has slipped to ¥111.37, down 0.54%, close to today's intraday low. Volatility for the session is 0.65%. Most indicators reinforce a cautious, short-term bias, with BBP and Stochastic RSI suggesting a possible overextension.

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/JPY was caught in a tentative downtrend, with resilience limited by persistent technical weakness. The current setup confirms this bias, as sellers retain firm control and the next decisive move hinges on whether ¥110.58 support or ¥111.42 resistance is breached.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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