Over 1% drop for Australian Dollar vs Yen as technical sell signals reinforce downside pressure

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Australian dollar slides 1.02% today

Highlights

Australian employment data missed expectations, leading to two consecutive days of declines for AUD/JPY.
Market pressure on the Australian Dollar against the Yen persisted after the release of weak labor figures.
AUD/JPY trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum, expected to range from ¥108.68 to ¥109.79 over the next five sessions.

Australian employment shortfall extends two-day currency selloff

Australian labor data was released below expectations, putting pressure on the Australian Dollar against the Japanese Yen. This employment figure has played a key role in the recent two-day slide of the currency cross. The continued weakness reflects market reaction to this data.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that AUD/JPY is under heavy pressure as it trades below all major moving averages. He highlights that the disappointing Australian labor data has triggered a strong shift in sentiment and exposed structural weaknesses in the pair. Kharitonov also points to negative momentum across technical indicators and warns that divergence in oscillators may reflect unstable market conditions. He sees little room for a sustained rebound given the bearish setup and the market’s reaction to fundamentals. "The overwhelming weight of both technical and fundamental factors makes a short-term recovery in AUD/JPY unlikely," he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes that despite weak labor data and recent declines, the broader setup for AUD/JPY still offers multiple opportunities. He stresses that macro drivers, such as regional policy shifts or improved sentiment in Asia-Pacific markets, could quickly restore bullish structure if ¥109.79 is reclaimed. Karapetjanc sees volatility as a catalyst for active traders as long as downside remains contained above ¥108.68. "Further growth remains possible in the near term — traders should watch for signs of momentum reversal around key levels," he says.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, sees Australian labor weakness amplifying downside risks for the AUD/JPY cross. He is wary of the negative shift in market confidence triggered by recent news. Dele considers the probabilities clearly skewed toward further losses, especially if ¥108.68 is breached. "I would stay defensive here, as bearish headlines and fragile sentiment continue to weigh on this pair," he states.

Broad MA breaches and mixed momentum signals flag downside risks

AUD/JPY trades below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages (¥110.36, ¥111.66, and ¥112.38), pointing to broad-based pressure from sellers across short, medium, and long-term trends. The bearish MA-50 vs MA-200 alignment further confirms a negative backdrop, with the near-term ceiling at ¥109.5 and the near-term floor at ¥108.68 defining the immediate trading corridor. Momentum signals remain negative, with the MACD indicating a strong sell and the Average Directional Index (ADX) confirming a directional downside move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.87 and leans toward sell territory, while the Stochastic RSI registers an overbought reading and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) shows buyers still have some control intraday, but forecasts an overbought condition. Notably, some oscillator and momentum indicators diverge, with intraday BBP strength at odds with the broader sell signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/JPY was experiencing persistent downside momentum, with technical signals highlighting elevated bearish risk. The latest data reinforce this negative outlook, and traders should monitor ¥108.68 as a key support level that could define the next move lower if breached.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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