Bangladesh Bank trade settlement framework expansion limits EUR/BDT below BDT140.519 resistance

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Euro vs taka slides 0.6% today

Highlights

Bangladesh Bank has authorized cross-border trade settlements in taka using Non-Resident Taka vostro accounts, allowing direct payments in BDT for international trade.
Foreign surplus balances in these accounts may now be allocated to approved Bangladeshi investments, including foreign direct investment and portfolio holdings.
EUR/BDT faces strong selling pressure, trading below major moving averages with bearish technical signals and a projected 139.06 to 140.458 range for the next 2 to 3 days.

Cross-border taka settlement expands liquidity options for foreign investors

Bangladesh Bank has implemented a framework permitting cross-border trade settlements in Bangladeshi taka through Non-Resident Taka (vostro) accounts held by authorised banks in trading partner countries, according to Thedailystar. This enables foreign banks to facilitate trade-related payments directly in BDT and provides an avenue for surplus account balances to be used in approved investments within Bangladesh, such as foreign direct investment and portfolio allocations. The policy broadens access channels for foreign capital and may reshape liquidity patterns for the Bangladeshi taka, offering a structural backdrop for recent market activity.

Oversold technicals reinforce resistance as sellers dominate

On the hourly chart, EUR/BDT is positioned below MA-20 at BDT140.361 and MA-50 at BDT140.564, with the daily price also beneath MA-200 at BDT142.412. The Ichimoku Kijun level at BDT140.519 acts as immediate resistance, marking a key barrier for any potential upside movement. Momentum indicators show MACD in a sell state and ADX remaining neutral on trend strength, while RSI is notably oversold at 27.311. Both Stoch RSI and CCI confirm deep oversold levels, and Bull/Bear Power points to dominant seller control intraday. The Awesome Oscillator remains aligned with selling pressure, supporting the prevailing technical weakness.

Downside bias persists with low rally probability in near term

In the short term, EUR/BDT is likely to remain within a typical volatility band between BDT139.06 and BDT140.458 over the next two to three trading days. The probability of a sustained rally is very low; continued downside remains the more likely scenario, with a reversal appearing unlikely unless a break above resistance is achieved. If price consolidates within this range, further support or resistance will likely develop at the outlined technical thresholds.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees neutral sentiment dominating EUR/BDT after Bangladesh Bank’s policy shift on cross-border settlements. He notes technical signals remain weak, with price stuck below key moving averages and oversold conditions failing to spark any reversal. The analyst expects the pair to stay in a tight range unless resistance near BDT140.519 is clearly broken. "Until buyers reclaim resistance, downside pressure is likely to persist and I remain defensive on this pair."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/BDT was experiencing persistent bearish momentum, with technicals signaling a sustained downside bias. The latest policy shift by Bangladesh Bank introduces additional dimensions to the market backdrop, and traders should closely watch for possible volatility expansion beyond the BDT139.06–BDT140.458 band as cross-border settlement reforms are absorbed.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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