US 10-year Treasury yield highest since 2007 limits US dollar to South Korean won exchange rate near ₩1,365 resistance

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US dollar vs Korean won falls 0.54%

Highlights

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since July 2007, raising demand for US dollar assets.
Stronger-than-expected US economic data supports expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, affecting the US Dollar versus Korean Won outlook.
USD/KRW remains under persistent bearish pressure with downside momentum dominating and an expected range of ₩1,350 to ₩1,368 for the next several sessions.

Rising US yields and data reinforce bullish sentiment for dollar flows

The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since July 2007, according to Tradingview, which increases global demand for US dollar assets by making them more attractive to yield-seeking investors. This move has been accompanied by stronger-than-expected US economic data that has reinforced market expectations for further Federal Reserve policy tightening. The rate gap between the US and South Korea continues to influence capital flows and shapes sentiment for the US Dollar vs Korean Won in the current environment.

Selling momentum holds as bearish signals persist below resistance

USD/KRW is trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 timeframe and well below the MA-200 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun level at ₩1,365 serves as immediate resistance. Momentum signals from MACD indicate continued selling, while ADX is neutral, pointing to a lack of prevailing trend. RSI sits at 40.37, which signals a sell bias. Both CCI and Bull/Bear Power reflect oversold conditions and ongoing seller dominance, while Stoch RSI remains neutral, and the Awesome Oscillator also indicates selling pressure.

Downside risk intensifies as range-bound trading is projected

Over the next two to three sessions, USD/KRW is expected to consolidate within the ₩1,350 to ₩1,368 range, reflective of typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is assessed at less than 20%, while downside scenarios remain dominant at over 80%. If the pair climbs above the ₩1,365 resistance, a recovery could unfold, but a move below ₩1,350 would create additional room for declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/KRW continuing to trade defensively below its key moving averages, with technicals still pointing to ongoing downside risks. He believes that despite supportive US economic data and higher Treasury yields, selling pressure dominates and momentum is weak. Price remains capped by MA and Ichimoku resistance, while sentiment favors further declines as long as ₩1,365 is not reclaimed. "Until we see a clear break above ₩1,365, my outlook stays cautious and I remain defensive on USD/KRW."

Earlier, analysts noted that exporter flows and foreign capital movements were exerting downward pressure on USD/KRW, despite intermittent short-term volatility. The current trend of subdued trading below key moving averages and persistent sell signals reinforces the dominance of downside risk, making a break below ₩1,350 the critical level to watch for potential further declines.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.