US dollar to South Korean won prediction: Range-bound trading persists with support at ₩1,331

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US Dollar vs South Korean Won drops 0.53%

Highlights

South Korea's foreign exchange reserves increased to $443.16 billion in October from $440.56 billion, expanding intervention capacity.
Higher reserves provide authorities with a stronger buffer to support the won and overall financial system stability.
USD/KRW remains in a downward trend, trading below key moving averages with high probability of a further decline toward ₩1,331 to ₩1,344 in the next sessions.

Reserve gains bolster won’s defense amid stabilizing sentiment

South Korea's foreign exchange reserves rose to $443.16 billion in October from $440.56 billion the previous month, according to FXStreet. This improvement in reserves expands the authorities' potential to defend the won through intervention, supporting broader financial stability. The updated data serves as a stabilizing factor for market sentiment surrounding the US Dollar vs South Korean Won.

Neutral momentum and intraday selling cap USD/KRW below key MAs

USD/KRW remains capped below the hourly MA-20, MA-50, and the long-term MA-200. The nearest resistance is the Ichimoku Kijun line at ₩1,341, while support is identified at ₩1,331. Technical indicators show MACD is on a Sell signal and Bull/Bear Power at -0.33 signals intraday selling dominance, while ADX, RSI, Stoch RSI, CCI, and Awesome Oscillator all register neutral readings, highlighting a lack of trend conviction and no signs of overbought or oversold conditions.

Rangebound trade favored as downside risk outweighs breakout odds

Over the next 2–3 sessions, USD/KRW is expected to remain rangebound between ₩1,331 and ₩1,344, with volatility staying contained relative to current levels. The probability of an upward breakout is very low, while a further move lower has a high probability. The base scenario sees the pair confined within the current trading corridor, with a bullish turn requiring a clear advance above ₩1,341 and renewed downside opening below ₩1,331.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/KRW as technically capped below key moving averages, with no clear trend conviction. The fundamental backdrop is stable, as South Korea’s higher FX reserves support confidence but have not shifted the pair out of its narrow range. He remains cautious, with base case for continued rangebound action and low odds for an upside breakout. "Until ₩1,341 is reclaimed, I do not trust any bullish signals here."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/KRW exhibited upward momentum as technical indicators favored further gains despite some divergence across timeframes. The current shift to downward pressure amid stronger foreign exchange reserves adds a new dimension, with traders advised to monitor the ₩1,331 support for signs of renewed downside risk.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.