USD/KRW technical analysis: Buyer support holds above ₩1,352 amid positive momentum

Traders Union
All News
Currency
US Dollar vs Won gains 0.59% today

Highlights

Seoul authorities deny plans for large-scale long-term US Treasury purchases after direct discussions with US officials.
South Korea's foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.6 billion to $443.16 billion at October end, indicating stable reserve management.
USD/KRW is forecast to trade between ₩1,356 and ₩1,371 in the next few days with strong buyer momentum and a high probability of continued upside.

Official denial of US Treasury purchases eases intervention speculation

Seoul authorities have publicly denied reports that they were considering large-scale purchases of long-term U.S. Treasuries, clarifying after meetings with U.S. financial officials that no such agreements exist. This direct communication reduces uncertainty about possible official currency interventions and calms speculation-driven flows. Additionally, South Korea's foreign exchange reserves rose by $2.60 billion to $443.16 billion at the end of October, reflecting stable reserve management and supporting confidence in South Korea’s capacity to handle currency volatility, according to Ajupress.

Momentum strengthens as positive signals diverge from neutral oscillators

On the hourly chart, USD/KRW trades above the MA-20 and MA-50 but remains below the MA-200, highlighting short- and medium-term strength against a backdrop of longer-term caution. The Ichimoku Kijun at ₩1,352 stands as immediate support for the pair. Momentum indicators are mostly positive: MACD issues a strong buy, ADX signals buyer control, and Bull/Bear Power reads at 3.24, confirming dominant buyer momentum intraday. In contrast, RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are all neutral, suggesting current strength has not yet reached overbought conditions. The Awesome Oscillator also supports prevailing positive momentum while the session sees low volatility, making the divergence between momentum and neutral oscillators noteworthy for future moves.

Consolidation likely as neutral oscillators curb bullish trend

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/KRW is expected to fluctuate within a relatively narrow volatility band from ₩1,356 to ₩1,371. The most likely scenario is for the pair to consolidate within this corridor as neutral oscillator signals temper recent bullish momentum. Should an upside break above ₩1,371 occur, it would indicate renewed buying interest and potential for further gains. Conversely, a drop below ₩1,356 would expose the pair to additional downside pressure and a potential shift in short-term direction.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees recent official denials of large U.S. Treasury purchases as a clear step toward calming FX intervention rumors. He believes this supports sentiment and builds market confidence, especially with reserves stable at $443.16 billion. Daily price action remains firm above short- and medium-term trend levels, while neutral oscillators signal steady consolidation ahead. The short-term corridor of ₩1,356 to ₩1,371 remains critical for tactical positioning. "As long as authorities reinforce transparency and reserves look solid, I expect USD/KRW to find support and potentially test the upside of its near-term range."

In a recent review, analysts highlighted short- and medium-term bullish momentum for USD/KRW, driven by exporter demand and active policy management to stabilize the currency. The current price action and official policy clarifications strengthen the outlook for consolidation in the near term, with a potential breakout above ₩1,371 signaling renewed upside risk for the pair.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.