USD/KRW consolidates as buyers support the pair near ₩1,343

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US Dollar vs Won gains 0.55% today

Highlights

South Korean authorities denied plans to purchase significant long-term U.S. Treasuries, countering recent media reports about potential FX intervention.
Foreign exchange reserves in South Korea increased by $2.6 billion in October to $443.16 billion, with low volatility in the USD/KRW market.
USD/KRW trades near session highs with bullish momentum; trading is expected in a ₩1,341 to ₩1,355 range over the next 2 to 3 days, with a 78% probability of an upside move but overbought technical signals indicate risk of short-term correction.

Stabilized market as Seoul denies intervention and reserves increase

Seoul authorities issued a joint statement from the Ministry of Finance and Economy and the Bank of Korea on Wednesday, explicitly denying plans to purchase large amounts of long-term U.S. Treasuries and rejecting related local media reports. This official clarification reduces market speculation regarding near-term intervention or significant shifts in Korean FX portfolio flows, bringing greater stability to the trading environment. Additionally, the Bank of Korea reported that South Korea's foreign exchange reserves increased to $443.16 billion at the end of October, up by $2.60 billion month-over-month, according to Ajupress, reinforcing a backdrop of stable policy capacity amid low volatility in the US Dollar vs South Korean Won market.

Mixed momentum signals as overbought risk meets ongoing support

USD/KRW currently trades above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart but remains below the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily is positioned at ₩1,343, providing immediate technical support. MACD issues a buy signal while ADX is neutral, indicating mixed trend strength. Overbought readings from RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI suggest the risk of a short-term pullback, while Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator both support ongoing buying pressure.

Upward bias persists as price stabilizes within defined volatility band

Over the next 2–3 trading days, USD/KRW is expected to fluctuate in a typical volatility band between ₩1,341 and ₩1,355. There is a 78% probability of an upward move into resistance, while a less likely bearish outcome would see price breach immediate support and drift toward the lower end of the range. The base scenario calls for a period of stabilization inside the defined corridor.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the official denial of large U.S. Treasury purchases as a move that dampens short-term volatility and reassures market participants about policy stability. Technical signals suggest the current bullish momentum is countered by signs of overbought conditions, raising the risk of a pullback. The base case is for USD/KRW to stabilize within ₩1,341 to ₩1,355, with upside capped unless stronger catalysts emerge. "Until technical overextension is resolved or new policy signals appear, I remain neutral and watch for a break outside the current range."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/KRW was facing downward pressure, with technicals and rising foreign exchange reserves suggesting a contained or bearish outlook. The latest move above short- and medium-term moving averages, coupled with official reassurances from Seoul, marks a shift toward modest bullish momentum, with traders advised to watch for sustained price action within the ₩1,341–₩1,355 corridor.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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