Why is the US dollar rising against the Polish Złoty today? NBP holds rate, resistance levels in focus

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US Dollar vs Polish Złoty up 0.51% today

Highlights

The National Bank of Poland kept its key policy rate steady at 3.75%, taking no action to change monetary conditions.
Recent inflation increases are attributed to higher fuel costs and regulatory changes in energy prices, not stronger domestic demand.
USD/PLN maintains a bullish structure with positive momentum, trading in a projected 3.9043 to 3.9435 range over the next 2 to 3 days.

Nbp maintains policy rate as inflation seen driven by fuel costs

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has maintained its key policy rate at 3.75%, a decision that signals a cautious stance toward any tightening or loosening of monetary policy. By attributing recent increases in inflation primarily to higher fuel prices, NBP is emphasizing that current price pressures are driven more by external cost factors rather than robust domestic demand. Furthermore, the central bank's latest statement included regulatory changes affecting energy prices as a central consideration for future inflation trends, according to Investing.com.

Buy momentum prevails as usd/pln nears overbought signals

Technically, USD/PLN trades above the MA-20 at zł3.9056 and MA-50 at zł3.9086 on the hourly chart, and remains well above the longer-term MA-200 at zł3.7111. The Ichimoku Kijun at zł3.907 acts as immediate support. MACD displays a buy signal and Bull/Bear Power supports buying dominance intraday, while ADX reflects the presence of a trend but not strong conviction. RSI registers at 65.36, with both CCI and Stoch RSI indicating overbought conditions, suggesting that recent bullish momentum may be nearing a consolidation phase. Awesome Oscillator confirms the upbeat momentum, but caution is warranted as oscillators signal stretched levels.

Upward bias holds as usd/pln trades near volatility corridor

Over the next 2 to 3 trading days, USD/PLN is expected to fluctuate within a corridor of zł3.9043 to zł3.9435 based on typical volatility. The probability scenario favors an upward move at 78%, while a downside reversal is much less likely at 22%. The baseline case anticipates stability within this price band, though a clear breakout above resistance could trigger further upside, whereas a dip below key support would be needed to suggest a bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/PLN holding steady due to the central bank’s cautious rate stance and temporary inflation drivers. Technically, the setup shows momentum, but overbought signals suggest the upside may be limited for now. Base case is a sideways action within zł3.9043–zł3.9435, with risks of a pullback if support fails. "Until we see a clean breakout or a loss of key support, I remain cautious and prefer to wait for stronger confirmation before taking a position."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN maintained a broadly bullish structure supported by firm technical momentum. The latest developments—marked by the National Bank of Poland's steady policy stance and ongoing upward technical signals—reinforce the prevailing scenario, with a sustained move above zł3.9435 likely to open the door to further gains in the near term.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.