Euro vs Turkish Lira stays under pressure as momentum indicators remain bearish

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Euro vs Turkish lira slides 0.50% today

Highlights

EUR/TRY remains below key short- and medium-term moving averages but trades above its 200-day average, indicating seller pressure with a preserved long-term bullish bias.
Momentum signals, including MACD and ADX, are bearish and forecast further downside, with weak RSI and CCI readings.
The pair is expected to trade in a ₺54.7697 to ₺55.3201 range over five days, with a 60% probability of a downward move.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes the sustained technical weakness in EUR/TRY as it trades well below its key short- and medium-term averages. He highlights that momentum remains resolutely bearish, with MACD and ADX signaling persistent selling pressure. Despite the long-term bullish undertone above the 200-day average, Kharitonov remains skeptical due to the lack of supportive news and subdued buyer conviction. He warns of further downside risks if support at ₺54.7697 fails. "I see seller dominance persisting until clear reversal signals emerge and news flows turn supportive for Euro bulls," Kharitonov says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the current pullback as a tactical pause within a resilient long-term bullish structure. He emphasizes that EUR/TRY remains securely above its 200-day average, which underpins a constructive medium-term outlook. Karapetjanc believes the ongoing consolidation offers multiple opportunities for renewed upside, especially if resistance at ₺55.3201 is cleared decisively. "The bullish structure remains intact — I expect further growth once short-term momentum stabilizes and technical buyers regain confidence," asserts Karapetjanc.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, observes that EUR/TRY is consolidating near short-term support with muted momentum. He notes the chance of range-bound swings given the sideways forecast, while monitoring for a breakout above ₺55.3201. "Potential divergence in sentiment may offer tactical entries if price rejects support or breaks through resistance," Mehta remarks.

Long-term bullish tone intact despite short-term bearish momentum

EUR/TRY remains below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages at ₺55.551 and ₺55.8265, respectively, reflecting ongoing downside pressure from sellers. The pair is still holding above its 200-day average at ₺53.5671, indicating a persistent long-term bullish structure despite short- and medium-term weakness. Nearby support is found at the week low of ₺54.9252, with initial resistance at today’s low of ₺55.1236, while the Ichimoku Kijun at ₺55.6627 reinforces overhead resistance. Momentum readings are broadly bearish: MACD and ADX point to continued downward pressure, RSI is soft at 40.7309, and CCI remains weak. Stochastic RSI is neutral and not signaling an extreme, while Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is modestly positive at 0.0686, hinting at isolated buyer interest. Price action has drifted lower after a flat open, and intraday tone is weak in the context of current technical conditions.

Previously it was reported that EUR/TRY was likely to remain in a consolidation phase with a bias toward downside risk as technical indicators pointed to sustained selling pressure. The latest analysis confirms this scenario, with traders advised to watch for a potential breakout below ₺54.7697 as a signal for further downside momentum.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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