Black gold back in trend: Why oil stocks are rising

​Oil is once again in the spotlight for investors, along with the shares of the world’s largest oil companies. Geopolitical instability and risks to global supply chains are the main drivers behind this shift. That is why the oil sector is once again being viewed by the market as a “defensive bet.”

The market has made its choice

Growing interest in the oil sector is clearly reflected in the performance of major oil stocks. Over the past month, Exxon Mobil shares climbed from $120 to $135, gaining about 12.5%. Chevron showed a similar trend, rising from $150 to $167, which represents an increase of roughly 11.3%. ConocoPhillips also strengthened, moving from $91 to $99, or nearly 9% over the month.

Loading...

The tweet was deleted by the author.

But we saved everything 🙂.

Importantly, this growth does not look like a short-term speculative spike, but rather a steady upward movement. Shares advanced during relatively stable trading sessions, without sharp jumps or crashes. This points to sustained demand from investors who are gradually increasing their exposure to oil stocks in their portfolios.

Such market behavior suggests a reassessment of the role oil companies play under current conditions. Investors increasingly view them as a way to hedge against geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions. But what exactly has triggered this global uncertainty?

Venezuela and the abduction of Maduro

Venezuela moved into the global spotlight after the abduction of its president, Nicolás Maduro, in early January. Following this, the United States announced the seizure of oil from seven recently captured Venezuelan tankers and claimed effective control over those volumes. According to Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil is already being delivered to U.S. refineries.

Washington is not limiting itself to isolated actions and is instead building systemic control over Venezuela’s oil industry. The Trump administration has announced plans to sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil at market prices, with revenues to be shared between Venezuela, the United States, and major oil companies. At the same time, discussions are underway about up to $100 billion in investments to restore and modernize production, refining, and logistics — with direct participation from U.S. corporations and under U.S. political oversight.

Venezuela is one of the world’s largest oil-producing countries, and any abrupt changes in how its resources are managed are immediately priced in by the market. Investors see the situation as an additional geopolitical risk: even if supplies formally continue, their dependence on political decisions increases.

Protests in Iran

Mass protests in Iran began in late December 2025 in Tehran and were initially driven by economic factors — rising prices, unemployment, and declining living standards. However, they quickly evolved into political unrest and spread across the country. The bloodiest moments came during the nights of January 8 and 9, when security forces attempted to suppress demonstrations using extremely harsh methods, including live ammunition against protesters.

The true scale of the violence remains disputed. Iranian authorities report 3,117 deaths, including civilians, security personnel, and those officially labeled as “terrorists.” Independent human rights organizations cite much higher figures: according to HRANA, at least 5,459 deaths have been confirmed, with thousands more cases still under review. Internet shutdowns, communication disruptions, and strict media controls have made independent verification extremely difficult.

Against this backdrop, external tensions have also increased. Opposition Iranian media reported that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was moved to an underground bunker amid fears of a potential U.S. strike. Even without a direct military scenario, developments in Iran are seen by the market as a serious risk to oil supplies, as the country remains a key player in the region’s energy market.

Russia’s war against Ukraine

The war in Ukraine continues to have a direct impact on the oil market, shifting attention from production to logistics and transportation. As the conflict persists, Russia increasingly relies on maritime routes to export oil, including through the Black Sea, making tanker fleets a key vulnerability. Investors closely monitor any signals pointing to potential supply disruptions or tighter controls on maritime shipments.

Additional momentum came from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He urged EU countries to more actively intercept tankers carrying Russian oil, citing the example of the United States, which previously took control of Venezuelan shipments. According to Zelensky, such measures could serve as an effective tool to pressure Russia and limit its energy export revenues.

For the oil market, this translates into rising logistical risk. Even without a direct ban on production or exports, the mere possibility of tanker detentions, inspections, and route blockages creates tension. These risks are quickly reflected in oil prices.

Oil as an indicator of instability

All the key factors influencing the oil market today converge on one point: geopolitics. Venezuela, Iran, and the war in Ukraine each add pressure in different ways, but together they significantly increase risks to global oil supply. In some cases, production is threatened; in others, logistics or control over export flows. Even without an immediate physical shortage, the market reacts in advance, building a premium for risk and uncertainty into prices.

This reaction is especially visible in oil stocks. Unlike oil itself, shares of major oil companies reflect not only current commodity prices, but also expectations around future revenues, dividends, and cash flows. Rising oil prices, constrained supply, and steady demand make oil companies more attractive to investors, particularly during turbulent periods. As a result, oil stocks increasingly act as a mirror of global instability.