Bitcoin price prediction by Bloomberg Intelligence: BTC could drop to $10,000

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Bitcoin price prediction by Bloomberg Intelligence

Bracing for a decline

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone recently reiterated his most bearish scenario for Bitcoin price — a drop to $10,000. He has maintained this view for several months and has not changed his stance despite market fluctuations. According to him, the current cycle is nearing its end, while the market remains oversaturated.

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As part of his argument, McGlone points to the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which tracks major digital assets. The index fell by about 20% in 2025 and has declined another 20% in 2026. He believes there are currently no clear catalysts that could reverse this trend.

Another key factor is oversupply. According to McGlone, the market now includes tens of millions of crypto assets, while real demand is concentrated in only a small segment, such as dollar-backed stablecoins. At the same time, investors continue to “buy the dip,” which he sees as a typical behavior in bear markets rather than a sign of recovery.

The distant $100,000 target

Just a few years ago, Bloomberg Intelligence had a very different outlook. In 2021, analysts projected Bitcoin could reach $100,000. Their main argument was the rapid inflow of institutional capital and growing interest from major financial firms.

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Reports at the time referenced companies like Fidelity and Franklin Templeton, which were actively hiring crypto specialists. This was seen as a signal that crypto was evolving from a niche segment into a mainstream asset class. Bitcoin was even described as a potential global reserve asset.

The scarcity narrative also played a central role. With Bitcoin’s limited supply and rising demand — including from DeFi and NFT sectors — analysts expected prices to climb. At the time, they believed that once BTC broke past $50,000, it could quickly move toward $100,000 with minimal resistance.

A shift in 2025

By the end of 2025, Bloomberg Intelligence’s tone began to change. McGlone stated that Bitcoin appeared “significantly overvalued,” particularly compared to gold. He pointed out that the BTC-to-gold ratio exceeded 20x, while a more reasonable level, in his view, would be closer to 13x.

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He also highlighted signals from the stock market. The 120-day volatility of the S&P 500 had dropped to its lowest level since 2017 — a potential sign of an upcoming shift. In such scenarios, risk assets like Bitcoin are often the first to come under pressure.

It was at this stage that a more cautious outlook emerged, with a possible decline to $50,000. This forecast became a transition point between earlier optimism and the current bearish stance.

Not everyone expects a drop

Despite this outlook, most analysts do not share such a pessimistic view. Prominent Bitcoin advocates like MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood, and Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee continue to support long-term growth scenarios.

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Their arguments are straightforward. First, Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, and a significant portion is already held by long-term investors. Second, institutional demand continues to grow — especially after the launch of spot ETFs — with large funds regularly accumulating BTC and reducing available supply.

Bitcoin is also increasingly viewed as “digital gold.” Amid inflation and global economic uncertainty, investors use it as a store of value. For this reason, many market participants see price declines as temporary corrections rather than the end of a long-term upward trend.

A market without a single narrative

Bloomberg Intelligence’s forecast stands out sharply, but it highlights how much the perception of Bitcoin has changed in recent years. Once seen as a rapidly growing asset class, it is now more often evaluated through the lens of macroeconomics, liquidity, and overheating risks. This shift helps explain why forecasts now range from $10,000 to $1 million.

In practical terms, the market no longer follows a single сценарий. Some analysts expect a deep correction and market cleansing, while others anticipate continued growth driven by demand and scarcity. As a result, Bitcoin’s price is increasingly influenced not only by crypto-specific factors but also by the broader global economy.

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