Silver price forecast: XAG/USD hits $70 record high as overbought RSI flags pullback risk

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Silver traders await GDP data amid safe-haven demand

Highlights

Silver price has surged 140% year-to-date, doubling gold’s return, due to AI-infrastructural demand
XAG/USD rally faces resistance at $70/oz as RSI signals overbought conditions before U.S. data release
Price may slide to $67 if U.S. GDP beats forecast and dollar strengthens

The strong divergence between silver and gold this year has been driven by industrial demand, particularly from the booming AI data center industry. Silver plays a critical role in high-efficiency electrical infrastructure, and its increasing demand from tech-driven applications has helped propel the price since May. Consecutive monthly gains have stacked up over 6 months, and silver performance in December now stands at over 24%, the strongest month of the year so far.

Silver price dynamics (April - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

In the background, the U.S. Dollar Index has dropped by 0.70% this week, further boosting U.S.-denominated commodity prices. The weakening dollar has made silver more attractive to global buyers, creating additional upward pressure. However, the price rally is beginning to show signs of short-term fatigue. Both the daily and weekly RSI readings are in overbought territory, raising the risk of near-term profit-taking.

XAGUSD bullish structure intact, but near-term direction tied to GDP data

Even so, the broader trend holds firm. Price is still comfortably supported above the 20, 50, and 100 EMAs on the one-hour chart. The structure suggests that any correction may find a technical floor near the 100 EMA, currently located around $67. That level coincides with Monday’s low, meaning a pullback to $67 would effectively erase the recent leg higher, but not the broader bullish setup.

Geopolitical tensions are also contributing to safe-haven demand. Renewed concerns in Venezuela and the Middle East are lifting investor interest in hard assets. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent declaration of a blockade on oil tankers involving Venezuela has stoked speculation of military involvement, adding a layer of uncertainty to markets.

Looking ahead, investor focus shifts to U.S. macroeconomic data. Durable Goods Orders, Industrial Production, and ADP Employment figures are due later in today’s North American session. However, the key report is the preliminary Q3 GDP, expected to show 3.2% annual growth, down from 3.8% in Q2. A weaker-than-expected print could pressure the dollar and push silver back above the $70 mark. On the other hand, a stronger reading may lift the greenback and trigger a correction in XAGUSD toward the $67 zone.

In recent analysis, we discussed how silver jumped 3% to an all-time high of $69.4 on safe-haven demand. RSI entered the overbought zone, while holding above $66 was needed to sustain momentum.

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