Trump tariffs could put $621B of Asian exports at risk

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Trump tariffs could put $621B of Asian exports at risk

A broader tariff net across metals, autos and chips

Section 232 comes from the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, allowing tariffs after investigations determine national security grounds. The Trump administration launched 14 Section 232 investigations last year, targeting sectors such as machinery, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals and automobiles — a pace that far outstrips historical norms. Nikkei notes Trump accounts for around 40% of all Section 232 investigations conducted over the past six decades, and he was the first president to actually impose them in 2017.

In his current term, duties tied to national security have already hit industries including steel, aluminum, automotives, furniture, copper and semiconductors, meaning they are unaffected by whatever the Supreme Court decides on reciprocal tariffs. Trade experts argue this expands the definition of “security” into a flexible justification for industrial protection. Former negotiators also warn Trump could apply wide sector tariffs and then selectively carve out countries that agree to bilateral deals. That dynamic raises uncertainty for both exporters and U.S. importers, because exemptions may become transactional rather than rule-based.

Asia faces the largest exposure, including U.S. allies

Among Asian partners, China is the most exposed, with $142 billion in goods considered vulnerable under pending or determined 232 tariffs, based on Nikkei’s analysis of 2024 customs data. However, the threat extends well beyond rivals: Japan faces $107 billion in exposure and South Korea $102 billion, putting major U.S. allies near the top of the risk list. The concern is that even countries with trade agreements or negotiated “fixed tariff” arrangements may not be protected in future rounds.

Trade policy specialists warn those deals could lose value if new Section 232 categories keep expanding. While the exact tariff rates and product lists remain unclear for investigations still underway, the estimate shows how large the pipeline of potential duties has become. In practical terms, the U.S. could continue escalating tariff pressure through national security claims, even as legal battles narrow other tools. For Asia, that means the real story isn’t only the Supreme Court decision — it’s the larger shift toward a more permanent, sector-by-sector tariff regime.

Recently we wrote that the U.S. economy reached a two-year high in the third quarter, expanding by 4.4%, effectively cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its January 28 meeting.

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