Weak Phase 3 survival data and CMS drug price talks

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AbbVie drops 3.04% to $217.13 today

Highlights

ABBV closed at $217.13, below the MA-20 ($222.31) and MA-50 ($225.78) but above the MA-200 ($207.75), indicating short- and medium-term downside pressure with long-term support intact.
Daily technicals show mixed momentum; MACD signals strong selling, RSI is neutral to slightly bullish, and Bull/Bear Power is intraday overbought despite a 3% decline.
Over the next five trading days, ABBV is expected to consolidate between $215.00 and $222.00, with high probability (80%+) of stabilization or upside unless it breaks below $215.00 support.

Drug trial success and policy shifts as dividend rises

AbbVie announced topline Phase 3 results from the EPCORE DLBCL-1 trial, reporting improved progression-free survival and response measures for epcoritamab in adults with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, although there was no statistically significant overall survival benefit. The company has also been named by the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for the next cycle of Medicare Drug Price Negotiation, which now includes drugs under Medicare Part B. AbbVie increased its quarterly dividend to $1.73 per share, representing an annualized yield of 3.1%.

Indicator divergence as intraday volatility signals ongoing pressure

Momentum indicators on the daily chart show mixed signals. The MACD signals strong selling while the ADX reads neutral, indicating uncertain trend strength. The Relative Strength Index is neutral to slightly bullish, and the Stochastic RSI stays elevated but not overbought, while the Commodity Channel Index is neutral. Bull/Bear Power is overbought by value, suggesting buyer dominance intraday, despite today's 3% decline to $217.13. Opening just below yesterday’s close ($223.93 to $222.78) showed no significant gap, but the price currently sits near the low of today’s $217.28 — $224.03 range, indicating high intraday volatility and persistent pressure since the open. Oscillator conflicts and momentum divergence highlight an unclear short-term tone, with intraday weakness aligning with negative MACD momentum.

High upside odds as volatility band guides near-term consolidation

For the short term, ABBV is expected to trade within a volatility band of $215.00 to $222.00 over the next five trading days. The probability of a price increase is very high (over 80%) based on weekly bullish signals from RSI, ADX, MACD, and the MA-50, making a downside scenario less probable. The baseline scenario points toward price consolidation in a sideways corridor within this band. A break above $223.50 would signal renewed upside momentum, while a move below $215.00 could trigger a deeper pullback toward long-term support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees short- and medium-term technical weakness in ABBV, despite strong longer-term support and recent positive news flow. He notes that mixed oscillator signals and today’s steep decline keep market direction uncertain. News about the Phase 3 trial and Medicare pricing is positive, but it does not offset current chart-based risks. "Base case remains consolidation between $215.00 and $222.00 — until $223.50 is broken, I remain cautious."

Previously it was reported that AbbVie traded marginally higher but remained under short- and medium-term moving averages, with support from longer-term MAs indicating underlying trend strength. Technical indicators showed mixed momentum, with oversold oscillators and strong MACD, suggesting a likely sideways range near current levels, while a break above short-term resistance could trigger upside potential.

Source of Data: ABBV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.