Oracle weekly forecast: further downside likely with volatility expected between $158.00 and $168.00

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Oracle falls 8.02% this week

Highlights

Oracle shares closed at $162.53, significantly below the MA-20 ($188.81), MA-50 ($197.67), and MA-200 ($219.27), indicating strong multi-term selling pressure.
Bearish momentum dominates with MACD and ADX on daily charts signaling a persistent sell environment, and oscillators (RSI 35.74, Stochastic RSI 15.29, CCI –115.51) all in oversold territory.
A realistic weekly range is projected between $158.00–$168.00, with over 80% probability of further decline, and downside risk increases if $158.00 is breached.

Strategic positioning and investor interest offset by operational headwinds this week

Oracle has reinforced its strategic position by securing a major role as both managing investor and security partner in a new U.S.-based TikTok joint venture, providing critical cloud infrastructure and data governance services. In addition, Mirae Asset Global Investments considerably raised its stake in ORCL, and Blackstone is evaluating a debt investment in the company's Michigan data center project. Operations were briefly affected by a weather-related power outage at an Oracle data center, causing temporary issues for U.S. TikTok users. The company also highlighted its strong shareholder returns, citing $158 billion distributed through dividends and buybacks over the past decade.

Bearish technicals persist over the week amid oversold momentum signals

W1 technical analysis remains bearish, as ORCL stays well beneath the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, placing the price under firm downward pressure in the short, medium, and long term. Weekly dynamic resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $189.20, with no clear support found until the $158.00 level. Oscillators on the weekly timeframe reflect strongly oversold conditions (RSI W1 at 35.74, Stochastic RSI at 15.29, and CCI at –115.51), while weekly momentum indicators (MACD, ADX) confirm sustained selling momentum. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, confirming the absence of a countertrend signal.

High volatility expected as downside risk outweighs rebound odds next week

For the next five to seven trading days, ORCL is likely to remain under heightened volatility, with a probable trading range between $158.00 and $168.00. The risk of further price declines is above 80%, while a rebound has limited probability. Should the stock close above $169.00, a recovery toward $189.20 could unfold as the bullish scenario. If $158.00 is breached to the downside, the lack of nearby support could accelerate declines in the near term.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Oracle shares suffered a sharp decline this week and continue to signal bearish pressure on the weekly chart. He sees the stock trading well beneath all key moving averages, with oversold technicals but no sign of a reversal. Despite positive developments around the TikTok joint venture and increased institutional interest, Kharitonov cautions that these fundamental drivers have not translated into renewed buying. Weekly momentum and oscillator readings reinforce the risk of more downside, with $158.00 as the key level to watch. The probability of a recovery remains low unless the price reclaims $169.00. "For the coming week, I remain defensive — as long as Oracle stays under $169.00, the risk of fresh lows prevails."

Previously it was reported that Oracle Corporation is experiencing sustained selling pressure, trading significantly below its key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, while daily momentum indicators such as the MACD, ADX, and RSI signal strong bearish momentum and oversold conditions. Resistance is located near the Ichimoku Kijun level, with no immediate support from major averages, and the stock is expected to remain range-bound amid continued downside risk.

Source of Data: ORCL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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