Strategy stock surges 20.86% as intraday buyers defy weak long-term signals

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Strategy surges 20.86% to $129.30 today

Highlights

Strategy posted a substantial Q4 2025 loss driven by unrealized losses on 713,502 bitcoins purchased at an average price of $76,000 as Bitcoin prices fell.
Despite volatile Bitcoin markets, Strategy maintains over $2.25 billion in cash reserves, covering more than 2.5 years of dividend and debt obligations without liquidating holdings.
MSTR closed at $129.30, well below key moving averages (MA-20: $155.70, MA-50: $163.98, MA-200: $303.40), with technicals signaling ongoing bearish momentum despite a volatile 21% intraday rebound.

Unrealized bitcoin losses mount as company affirms accumulation strategy

Strategy reported a substantial loss for the fourth quarter of 2025, largely due to unrealized losses on its extensive Bitcoin holdings as Bitcoin prices declined. As of quarter-end, the company held 713,502 bitcoins purchased at an average price of $76,000 each, resulting in total unrealized losses ranging from approximately $6.5 billion to $12.4 billion depending on the reporting date's market price. Strategy has set aside more than $2.25 billion in cash reserves, enough to cover over 2.5 years of dividend and debt obligations without liquidating Bitcoin, and continues its policy of Bitcoin accumulation despite the volatility.

Intraday rally diverges from bearish momentum across longer timeframes

Momentum indicators show weak underlying strength, with MACD and ADX both signaling “Sell,” while the RSI (24.27), Commodity Channel Index, and Stochastic RSI all highlight oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power remains deeply negative, signifying sellers still dominate intraday movement, and Awesome Oscillator also supports the downside narrative. Today, MSTR gapped up at the open (from $106.99 to $114.77) and rallied nearly 21% to $129.30, closing near the high of its daily range ($114.77 – $127.32), reflecting high volatility and strong upward momentum throughout the session. Despite the surge, momentum signals on higher timeframes remain bearish, creating a clear divergence between intraday recovery and the broader technical picture.

Downside risk dominates as narrow range signals weak breakout potential

For the coming week, the expected price range for MSTR is $127.50 to $133.00, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of further price increases is very low (less than 20%), so additional declines are considerably more likely. The baseline scenario is for sideways consolidation within this tight corridor. A bullish outcome would require a firm breakout above $133.00, while a drop below $127.50 could expose renewed downside risk given the prevailing weak technical backdrop.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent technical weakness and sustained selling pressure in MSTR. He notes the company’s large unrealized Bitcoin losses and weak momentum, despite a temporary intraday rebound. Kharitonov believes upside potential is limited while sellers dominate, and the base case is sideways or lower within the $127.50–$133.00 band. "Unless MSTR decisively breaks $133.00, I remain defensive and expect further downside risk to prevail."

Previously it was reported that Strategy’s share price experienced a sharp multi-week drawdown, with momentum remaining decisively negative as the stock tracked heightened bitcoin volatility and sector-wide risk repricing. Moving averages have turned lower, technical indicators reflect oversold conditions with downside pressure persisting, and support appears tenuous as sentiment around both the asset and broader crypto markets remains fragile.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.