Gold: Weak trend signals and low volumes trigger a 1.24% slide

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Gold slides 1.24% to $4,930 today

Highlights

Gold trading volumes are subdued due to the US Presidents' Day holiday, while investors await upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals.
Continued central bank gold purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks are driving sustained safe-haven demand, further supported by a softer US dollar and real yields.
Gold trades at $4,930.37, below the 20-day Moving Average ($4,976.52) with near-term resistance at $5,004.04 (Kijun) and support at $4,870; medium- and long-term trends remain structurally bullish.

Muted volumes and safe-haven demand as policy and data awaited

Trading volumes in Gold remain subdued due to the US Presidents' Day holiday, as investors look ahead to upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals. Continued central bank gold buying and ongoing geopolitical risks are providing sustained demand for the asset as a safe haven. A softer US dollar and real yields are also supporting the current market environment.

Mixed momentum as gold tests support and faces resistance

Technical analysis shows that Gold is under short-term pressure, with the price below its 20-day Moving Average and Ichimoku Kijun line, but above the 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages. The next noticeable support is set at the 50-day ($4,772.16), while resistance sits near the Kijun line ($5,004.04). Momentum indicators are mixed: daily MACD is in Strong Buy mode, though ADX points to weak trend strength with a Sell bias. RSI is slightly bullish and neither overbought nor oversold, Stochastic RSI and CCI are near neutral, and Bull/Bear Power is overbought, reflecting recent buying activity. However, the price action today leans negative, intraday volatility is high, and oscillators indicate uncertainty.

Upward bias probable as consolidation defines short-term risk

In the short term, Gold is likely to remain within its typical volatility band of $4,870 to $5,130 over the next five trading days. There is a strong probability (over 80%) of upward movement, supported by consensus Buy signals from weekly momentum indicators. Baseline expectation is consolidation between $4,870 and $5,130. A sustained move above $5,004 could pave the way for a rally toward the $5,100 – $5,130 resistance, while losing $4,870 may lead to a test of support near $4,770 at the 50-day Moving Average.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Gold facing short-term selling pressure despite longer-term support from steady central bank demand and geopolitical risk. He notes that technical signals are mixed, with momentum oscillators indecisive and price stuck between key moving averages. The analyst remains cautious, as weak trend strength and high volatility signal uncertainty in the near term. "Base case is for consolidation between $4,870 and $5,130, but I stay defensive unless Gold firmly breaks above $5,004."

Last time, analysts noted that gold (XAU/USD) was consolidating near the $5,000 mark, with spot prices fluctuating just below the 20-day moving average and modestly above the 50- and 200-day averages, as neutral RSI and mild positive MACD momentum reflected a lack of clear directional conviction. Key support was identified at $4,960–$4,970 and resistance at $5,010–$5,020, with a firmer U.S. dollar and thin holiday liquidity contributing to a choppy, rangebound environment pending a decisive macro or technical catalyst.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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