US Dollar vs South Korean Won: Oversold momentum readings drive downside pressure

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US Dollar vs won slides 0.87% today

Highlights

USD/KRW trades at ₩1,429.35, staying below the MA-20 (₩1,449.88), MA-50 (₩1,454.34), and MA-200 (₩1,434.88), indicating ongoing bearish pressure.
Momentum indicators (MACD, ADX) confirm seller control, while RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI point to mild oversold conditions with no major divergences.
For the next week, USD/KRW is expected to range tightly between ₩1,415 support and ₩1,445 resistance, with sub-20% probability of a rebound.

Bearish momentum confirmed as resistance contains rebounds

The Ichimoku Kijun at ₩1,452.44 acts as immediate resistance, capping potential rebounds in the near term. Momentum indicators reinforce a bearish tone, with the MACD and ADX both signaling selling pressure and subdued trend strength. Oscillators such as the RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI all point to a mild oversold condition, while Bull/Bear Power shows sellers dominating intraday momentum. The current price is pinned near today’s low in a narrow range, indicating low intraday volatility and clear post-open downside pressure. Most momentum signals confirm the ongoing seller control, with no major divergences versus price action.

Continued range-trading likely as downside risk persists

For the next week, USD/KRW is expected to fluctuate between ₩1,415 and ₩1,445, adjusted for a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely in the short term. The baseline scenario is continued sideways movement in a tight corridor. A bullish outcome would require breaking above immediate resistance near the Ichimoku Kijun at ₩1,452.44, while a bearish scenario could develop if the price falls through the ₩1,415 support region and sustains lower closes.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees persistent bearish momentum for USD/KRW, confirmed by the price staying below all major moving averages. He notes that technical indicators point to continuing selling pressure and limited volatility. Cautious sentiment prevails, with sideways action likely as long as the pair remains beneath the Ichimoku Kijun resistance at ₩1,452.44. "Base case remains a tight range; unless buyers reclaim ₩1,452.44, further downside is favored in the short term."

Previously it was reported that USD/KRW is trading below its short- and medium-term moving averages, reflecting prevailing bearish momentum, while support remains in place above the 200-day moving average. Momentum indicators show a mix of ongoing weakness and intensifying oversold signals, with key resistance at the Kijun and MA-50 and support anchored at the MA-200.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.