Strategy stock price forecast: Persistent selling limits rebound chance as MSTR drops to $131

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Strategy drops 3.36% today to $131.09

Highlights

Strategy Inc. became the most shorted U.S. stock above $25 billion market cap, with short interest reaching 14% due to institutional basis trades involving Bitcoin ETFs and MSTR shorts.
Anchorage Digital, Prevalon Energy, and OranjeBTC purchased newly issued STRC perpetual preferred stock offering an 11.25% annual dividend and seniority, while Jane Street Group increased MSTR and ETF holdings.
With the price at $131.09 below all major moving averages and immediate resistance at $136.53, momentum remains bearish and further downside below $125.00 support is likely.

Short interest rises as institutional trades target valuation disconnects

Strategy Inc. recently became the most shorted U.S. stock by percentage of market capitalization among companies valued above $25 billion, with short interest reaching approximately 14%. This was partly attributed to institutional basis trades involving the simultaneous purchase of Bitcoin ETFs and the shorting of MSTR to exploit valuation discrepancies. Several firms, including Anchorage Digital, Prevalon Energy, and OranjeBTC, acquired the company's newly issued STRC perpetual preferred stock offering an 11.25% annual dividend and seniority to common shares, while new filings showed Jane Street Group increased its holdings in both MSTR and related ETF instruments. These developments were accompanied by ongoing institutional activity tied to Strategy's leveraged Bitcoin exposure, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Downtrend reinforced as bearish momentum diverges across indicators

The current price of $131.09 is trading slightly below the MA-20 ($132.40), well under the MA-50 ($150.71), and significantly below the MA-200 ($287.37). This configuration indicates persistent downward pressure in the medium and long term, with only short-term support from the faster Moving Averages. The Ichimoku Kijun stands at $136.53 — above current levels — making it immediate resistance.

Momentum signals remain bearish, with the MACD showing a strong sell and the ADX indicating a strengthening downtrend. The RSI is just below 50, signaling mild seller dominance, while the Stochastic RSI is flagged as overbought on D1 but shows oversold readings intraday — highlighting a divergence in momentum and oscillators. Bull/Bear Power is in overbought territory, but the negative daily move (down 3.36%, or $4.56) and price action near the low end of today’s range point to sellers reinforcing their grip intraday. There was no notable gap between the previous close and today’s open, volatility is moderate, and the tone remains weak with price drifting lower after the open.

Further losses favored as rebound odds stay minimal within range

For the next five trading days, the adjusted expected range is $125.00 to $134.00, keeping within the typical volatility band relative to current levels. Forecast indicators point to a very low probability (less than 20%) of a price rebound, making a further decline more likely. The baseline scenario anticipates price movement confined between recent support and resistance levels. A bullish scenario would require a break above the $136.53 immediate resistance, while a bearish case sees price falling below the $125.00 support area. Broader weekly and daily momentum both suggest sellers remain in control.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees institutional positioning and heavy short interest revealing persistent skepticism toward Strategy Incorporated. He notes that the fundamental narrative is shaped by leveraged Bitcoin exposure and recent capital inflows into new preferred stock. Despite long-term bearish momentum, the expert believes sentiment could shift quickly if resistance at $136.53 is broken. "If institutions continue increasing their exposure and the price can reclaim the $136.53 level, upside momentum may return, so I remain attentive for signs of strength in the coming days."

Last time, analysts noted that MicroStrategy shares stabilized just above the 20-day moving average amid persistent medium- and long-term downward trends, as momentum indicators showed mixed signals with prevailing bearish conditions. Despite a strong intraday rebound and ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin, short-term resistance and weak higher timeframe trend readings suggest limited upside potential.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.