US Dollar vs South Korean Won: Resilient chip exports and steady policy limit bullish momentum

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US Dollar vs Won gains 0.54% today

Highlights

The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate unchanged for the sixth straight meeting, reflecting improved economic prospects driven by robust chip export demand.
South Korean exports surged 34% year-on-year in January, following a 13% increase in December, underscoring strengthening economic fundamentals.
USD/KRW trades at ₩1,434.47, below its MA-20, MA-50, and just under the MA-200, with ₩1,450.50 as immediate resistance and ₩1,410 as key support.

Export-driven growth boosts economic outlook as central bank holds rates steady

South Korea's central bank maintains its policy rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting while raising growth and inflation forecasts, citing improved prospects due to robust chip export demand. Policymakers last adjusted interest rates in May 2025 as export performance continued to strengthen. South Korean exports increased by 34% year-on-year in January, after a 13% rise in December, pointing to stronger economic fundamentals for the country.

Negative technical bias persists as price tests major moving averages

Technical analysis for USD/KRW shows the price remains below the MA-20 (₩1,448.05) and MA-50 (₩1,453.97), and just under the MA-200 (₩1,435.09), with pronounced selling pressure in the short and medium term and a test of long-term support likely. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ₩1,450.50, establishing immediate resistance and supporting the negative technical bias. Daily momentum indicators, including the MACD and ADX, signal weak bullish momentum. Oscillators like RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI point to oversold conditions, while Bull/Bear Power highlights dominance by sellers and a cautious outlook on recovery attempts.

Sideways movement favored as bearish signals cap upside risk

For the coming week, the typical volatility band is set at ₩1,410 – ₩1,455, reflecting the current market context. There is a low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained upside move, while a further decline or continued range trading appears more likely due to the prevailing bearish technical signals on the daily chart and lack of bullish confirmation on higher timeframes. A bullish breakout could materialize if the price rises above ₩1,450, while a deeper downside move may develop if support at ₩1,410 is breached. The baseline scenario favors sideways movement within this band.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees South Korea’s solid economic fundamentals and the central bank’s optimistic outlook as positives for the won. He believes the technical picture remains pressured, but macro trends favor stability over further depreciation. Tactical downside risks persist as long as USD/KRW stays under ₩1,450, but improved export growth offers support. "If the price holds above ₩1,410, I expect sideways action and a potential recovery in the coming weeks."

Last time, analysts noted that USD/KRW is trading just above its 200-day moving average but remains below key short- and medium-term MAs, highlighting ongoing bearish pressure despite a modest intraday gain. Momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX show weak trend strength, while oversold signals from oscillators like RSI suggest potential for a short-term bounce within a broader bearish structure.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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