WTI crude oil price forecast: Break above $67 could shift structure higher

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WTI crude oil price forecast

Highlights

WTI holds near $66 with price trading above the full EMA stack on the daily chart.
RSI around 61 signals constructive momentum without overbought conditions.
A close above $67 opens the path toward $70, while $64.5 marks near-term support.

The daily chart reflects a notable improvement in trend alignment. The 20-day EMA at $64.47 has crossed above the 50-day at $62.5, while the 100-day at $61.8 and 200-day at $62.88 remain clustered below current price. This configuration signals a bullish short-term structure, particularly as recent pullbacks have held above the rising 20-day EMA.

WTI price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Momentum indicators reinforce that view. RSI near 61 sits comfortably above the neutral 50 level and continues to trend higher without flashing overbought warnings. The sequence of higher lows since the January trough near $55 remains intact, indicating sustained dip buying rather than reactive short covering.

The immediate focus is the $66 to $67 resistance band, which capped rallies in late January and early February. A decisive daily close above $67 would clear that ceiling and likely accelerate buying toward $70, the next significant horizontal resistance and a former breakdown zone from last summer. Above $70, upside targets would shift toward the low-$70s.

On the downside, $64.50 serves as first support and the reference level for short-term positioning. A break below that area would bring the $62.8 to $62.5 cluster into play, where the 200- and 50-day EMAs converge. A sustained move under that band would suggest a failed breakout and reopen downside risk toward $60.

Geopolitics and OPEC+ keep volatility elevated

Fundamentally, crude is trading on a mix of diplomatic and supply signals. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to continue nuclear negotiations, but tensions remain elevated, particularly around enrichment issues and regional military deployments. That dynamic preserves a geopolitical premium, especially given the sensitivity of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, OPEC+ is set to meet with increasing discussion around oversupply risk. Any signal pointing to higher output could temper bullish momentum and test the durability of the recent breakout attempt.

As previously discussed, WTI has struggled to sustain rallies above the mid-$60s without a clear catalyst. The difference now is the stronger technical alignment. If crude can secure a close above $67 and hold above $64.5 on pullbacks, the path of least resistance remains higher into the OPEC+ decision.

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