WTI crude oil price forecast: Gulf export spike weighs on bulls near $64
WTI crude oil fell more than 1.5% to near $64.4 per barrel. This was a drop from recent highs as rising exports from the Middle East and ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks brought the focus back to supply. More and more traders are getting ready for surplus risk before the next OPEC+ meeting. Saudi shipments are expected to reach their highest level in almost three years, and exports from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE are also rising.
Highlights
- WTI trades near $64.4 after failing to hold above $66.5 resistance.
- Saudi and Gulf exports are rising ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.
- A break below $64 exposes the $62 to $61.7 EMA cluster and potentially $60.
Even though geopolitical news is still making the market unstable, the tone of the market suggests that supply expectations are currently more important than fear-driven premiums. Progress in talks between the U.S. and Iran about nuclear weapons has eased concerns about immediate disruptions, even though tensions in the region are still high. At the same time, higher export volumes from major Gulf producers are making people think that global balances could shift back toward surplus in the upcoming months.
This recalibration comes at a sensitive moment, with OPEC+ set to assess output policy. Any signal pointing toward higher production in April could amplify downside pressure, particularly if Iranian supply expectations firm up.
Charts show rejection at resistance
Technically, crude has stalled below the $66.5 to $67 resistance zone and printed a rejection candle after failing to sustain a breakout attempt. The broader structure continues to reflect lower highs from the earlier $76 spike, keeping the larger trend corrective within a longer downtrend that began in mid-2025.
WTI price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
WTI is currently sitting near the 20-day EMA at $64.18, which serves as immediate support. A decisive daily close below that level would shift focus to the 200-day EMA at $62.84, closely aligned with the 50-day EMA at $62.31 and the 100-day EMA at $61.69. This $62.8 to $61.7 band represents a key technical battleground. A sustained break beneath it would open the door toward $60 and potentially the $58 to $56 demand zone seen in December.
Momentum indicators are neutral but softening. RSI near 53 has rolled over from recent highs, indicating fading bullish pressure. The failure to push RSI above 60 during the recent rally suggests limited upside conviction.
As previously discussed, WTI has repeatedly struggled to convert rebounds into sustained uptrends, with rallies into the mid-$60s often meeting supply. Unless crude reclaims $67 with strong volume and follow-through, the near-term bias remains tilted toward consolidation or renewed downside within the established $62 to $67 range.
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