Gold price prediction: Will consolidation lift XAU after extended selloff?

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Gold falls 1.48% to $4,924 today

Highlights

Global gold ETF holdings hit a record 4,171 tonnes in February as investors and central banks sought to diversify from the U.S. dollar.
The Federal Reserve maintained steady rates at 3.50%–3.75%, limiting fresh gold demand as higher yields posed a headwind despite geopolitical support.
Gold faces heavy downside pressure with persistent intraday selling and high volatility, but oversold technical conditions suggest a consolidation range between $4,860 and $5,030 over the coming week.

Record ETF inflows offset by Fed policy and sustained selling pressure

Global gold ETF holdings reached a record 4,171 tonnes in February, driven by inflows from global investors and central banks pursuing diversification away from the U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.50% – 3.75%, which limited additional demand for gold as higher yields acted as a headwind. Modest increases in hedge fund net positioning and ongoing geopolitical tensions were observed, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Long-term support persists as short-term momentum weakens further

XAU remains well below its MA-20 ($5,131.96) and MA-50 ($5,067.82), reinforcing short- and medium-term downside momentum. However, it is still trading far above the MA-200 ($4,346.95), indicating long-term technical support remains intact. The Ichimoku Kijun line is positioned at $5,192.18, marking clear near-term resistance. Daily indicators, including negative MACD and ADX, signal weak and declining trend strength, while RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI point to oversold conditions, with BBP confirming seller dominance and the Awesome Oscillator underscoring the prevailing downtrend.

High rebound odds as oversold signals clash with volatility range

For the next five trading days, the expected volatility band is $4,860 to $5,030, centered near current levels due to recent volatility. The probability of a price increase is high (over 80%), as weekly MA-50, RSI, ADX, and MACD remain bullish, suggesting that oversold daily conditions could trigger sideways consolidation between support and resistance. A bullish scenario would see XAU break above $5,030, targeting the $5,070 – $5,100 range if buyers regain control. A bearish scenario involves a drop below $4,860, which could open the way to the mid-$4,800s before long-term support offers stability.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, observes that despite XAU’s short-term weakness, global ETF inflows and central bank diversification provide a resilient fundamental backdrop. He sees long-term technical support and oversold conditions as signals that the downside is likely limited. The analyst expects consolidation with a bullish tilt as macro forces and sentiment remain constructive. "As oversold conditions meet strong support near $4,860, I expect gold to rebound toward $5,070 — $5,100 if buying momentum returns in the next few sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that while gold faced short- and medium-term downward pressure, its long-term trend remained supported by ongoing central bank diversification and geopolitical risks. The latest market action confirms this broader view, but with increased ETF inflows and prevailing oversold conditions, traders should monitor the $5,030 resistance as a potential pivot for renewed bullish momentum in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.