WTI remains under significant pressure following a sharp reversal from recent highs above $110 per barrel. Based on the daily chart, the price has broken below key moving averages and fallen into the $78–80 range, erasing a substantial portion of the geopolitical rally seen over recent weeks.
The latest daily candle reflects intensified selling pressure and a break below an important support zone, suggesting that bearish momentum remains firmly in place in the near term.
Geopolitical premium fades rapidly
The primary driver behind the selloff is the easing of tensions surrounding oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants are reassessing the geopolitical premium that had previously been built into prices following signs of improving regional stability and progress in negotiations involving the United States and Iran. As a result, WTI has already slipped below the $80-per-barrel mark, reaching its lowest levels in several months.
Supply-side concerns add to downward pressure
Additional bearish pressure comes from expectations of a gradual recovery in regional export flows and the potential increase in global oil supply. Several major investment banks have already revised their price forecasts lower for the second half of the year, citing the prospect of additional barrels returning to the market and a reduced likelihood of supply disruptions.
Key levels to watch
From a technical perspective, the $78–80 area represents the first major support zone. A decisive break below this range could pave the way toward $75 and potentially the long-term moving average near $73–74 per barrel. For bullish sentiment to return, WTI would need to regain and hold above $85. However, the broader market structure remains bearish for now.
In the coming days, traders will closely monitor the actual pace of supply normalization through the Strait of Hormuz and any new signals regarding the global supply-demand balance, a risk I have repeatedly highlighted, most notably in my article WTI falls to multi-week lows as Hormuz tensions ease. Overall, the current backdrop remains moderately negative for crude oil prices.
Latest WTI News
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