Mixed daily indicators keep Euro vs Hryvnia steady near medium-term support

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Euro vs Hryvnia down 0.53% today

Highlights

The French parliament endorsed civil proposals backing the ECB’s climate-focused reforms, including incentives for green lending and new institutional oversight.
Enhanced alignment was recommended between the ECB and other EU bodies on secondary policy objectives, but market sentiment remains pressured by broader asset selling.
EUR/UAH is forecast to trade between ₴50.78 and ₴50.88 over the next week amid a fragile rally, with momentum indicators signaling short-term weakness but medium- to long-term bullish probability above 80%.

Broader selling persists amid French parliament’s climate-driven ECB agenda

The French parliament endorsed civil society proposals supporting the European Central Bank's ongoing climate-focused policy agenda and institutional reforms. The recommendations include encouraging green lending through targeted interest rate reductions and proposing the creation of a European Credit Council to assist policy evaluation. Enhanced coordination between the ECB and other institutions on secondary objectives related to EU economic policy was also included, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Fragile rally as short-term bearish momentum clashes with active buyers

Momentum indicators present a mixed picture on the daily chart: MACD signals strong sell, pointing to weakening short-term momentum, while ADX remains neutral. RSI at 55.3 and CCI at 76.1 are in buy territory but not overextended, whereas Stoch RSI shows overbought conditions and BBP indicates strong buy pressure, confirming short-term buyer dominance. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral. EUR/UAH declined 0.53% during the session, opening near the previous close with moderate intraday volatility, and is now trading near the session's lower range (₴50.8262–₴51.1136). Persistent early-session pressure and diverging momentum and oscillator signals suggest a fragile rally as short-term momentum turns bearish but intraday buyers remain active.

Range-bound outlook favored as technicals point to limited downside risk

In the short term, EUR/UAH is expected to trade within a volatility band of ₴50.78 to ₴50.88 over the next five sessions. Medium- and long-term technical signals (RSI, MA-50, ADX, MACD on the weekly chart) are firmly positive, indicating an over 80% probability of further price gains and making a significant drop less likely. The baseline scenario is for range-bound movement within this corridor. A push above ₴50.88 may trigger additional gains, while a bearish move under ₴50.78 would suggest a breakdown of support and could open the way for deeper corrections.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees continued strength in EUR/UAH, underpinned by solid institutional momentum and technical support. He notes that fundamentals are improving, with positive reforms and green policy backing from the French parliament adding a supportive macro backdrop. The analyst acknowledges some short-term weakness and volatility but believes the medium- and long-term setup remains positive. "As long as EUR/UAH holds above ₴50.78, I remain confident in the upside and see range-bound consolidation as a healthy base for further gains."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite mixed signals, EUR/UAH displayed a fragile balance between short-term weakness and sustained long-term support. The latest technical and policy-driven developments reinforce this theme, suggesting traders should watch for a breakout above ₴50.88 or a breakdown below ₴50.78 as the potential catalyst for the next directional move.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.